Russia Signals Potential Withdrawal from Ukraine Peace Talks Without Donbass Concessions
Negotiations between Ukraine, the United States, and Russia face a critical juncture as Russia reportedly demands Ukraine cede control of the entire Donbass region as a prerequisite for continued peace talks. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Moscow is increasingly skeptical of the value of negotiations under U.S. Auspices if Kyiv remains unwilling to create territorial concessions.
Key Demands and Potential Compromises
Russian officials believe the upcoming talks, scheduled for next week, will be decisive in determining whether an agreement can be reached to end the war in Ukraine. Russia is prepared to halt further negotiations if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy does not offer concessions, specifically regarding the Donbass region. Bloomberg reports that Russia is willing to sign a draft peace memorandum if Ukraine withdraws its troops from the Donetsk region.
Following a potential Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, a trilateral meeting involving the leaders of the United States, Ukraine, and Russia could quickly follow to confirm the agreement. This agreement would entail a mutual withdrawal of both Russian and Ukrainian troops.
Russia has indicated a willingness to withdraw forces from parts of the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. It also reportedly will not insist on demands for additional territories in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia will agree to a US-led ceasefire monitoring effort and will not impose limitations on the size of the Ukrainian army, but it opposes the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine.
Historical Context and Previous Negotiations
President Zelenskyy stated in December that a 20-point plan for a peaceful settlement was approximately 90% complete. He previously announced that another meeting in the Ukraine-US-Russia format was likely to occur in the UAE in early March. Zelenskyy also expressed a belief in a window of opportunity to end the conflict before the U.S. Midterm elections in November.
Following trilateral negotiations held in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 17-18, Zelenskyy reported some progress in the military track of negotiations. The Ukrainian delegation, led by Rustem Umerov, included key figures such as Kyrylo Budanov, Andriy Hnatov, David Arakhamia, Serhiy Kyslytsia, and Vadym Skibitskyi.
Recent Developments
The current Russian position echoes proposals reportedly made by Steve Witkoff prior to the Putin-Trump summit in Alaska in August. Witkoff suggested the U.S. Pressure Ukraine to relinquish the Donbass in exchange for Russia freezing the conflict and relinquishing claims to Ukrainian-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.