Russia’s Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Offensive Plans and Negotiation Stalemates
Recent assessments suggest Russia aims to intensify its military operations in eastern and southern Ukraine, specifically targeting the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Despite these ambitions, significant obstacles remain, and diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are currently stalled over territorial disputes.
Russian Military Objectives
According to reports from February 2026, Russia intends to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region by late March or early April. Alongside this goal, Russian forces are attempting to craft gains in the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, while also trying to establish buffer zones along the border in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Despite these plans, assessments indicate that a broader offensive to capture key cities like Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and eventually Odesa is not considered feasible within the next six months.
Current Battlefield Situation
As of early February 2026, Russian forces have been encountering strong resistance in the Pokrovsk region of Donetsk Oblast, hindering their progress. Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly maintaining a successful defense in this area.
Recent claims by Russia indicate the capture of the villages of Stepanivka in the Donetsk region and Staroukrainka in the Zaporizhzhia region. However, these claims have not been independently verified due to the ongoing conflict.
Negotiation Deadlock
Moscow is attempting to achieve its objectives in Donetsk through peace negotiations mediated by the United States. Russia’s primary demand is for Ukraine to cede full control of the Donetsk region to end the war. However, Ukraine has rejected this demand, insisting that any peace negotiations must begin from the current front lines.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed skepticism that the war will end even if Ukraine were to withdraw from the Donetsk region.
Background: Russian Annexation
In September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of areas in and around the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, following largely disputed referendums. This annexation has been widely condemned by the international community, with 143 members of the United Nations declaring it illegal under international law. Prior to the annexation, Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia Oblast were administered by a Russian military-civilian administration.
The Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been under Russian military occupation since February 2022, beginning with the capture of Melitopol and Berdiansk. Russian forces also seized control of Enerhodar, the location of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, in March 2022. However, the oblast’s capital, Zaporizhzhia city, remains under Ukrainian government control.