The Russian government continues its full-scale invasion of Ukraine because President Vladimir Putin views the conflict as a fundamental struggle for Russia’s geopolitical security and historical influence, despite the high economic and human costs. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the Kremlin frames the war as a defensive necessity against NATO expansion and an effort to restore what it terms "historical Russia."
Why does Russia continue the war despite the economic cost?
The Russian leadership prioritizes its strategic goals over short-term economic stability. While Western nations have imposed unprecedented sanctions, the Russian economy has shifted toward a wartime footing. According to Reuters, Russia’s defense spending for 2024 was set to increase significantly, accounting for roughly 6% of its GDP.
The Kremlin argues that this spending supports domestic industrial growth, particularly in the military-industrial complex. By pouring capital into weapons production, the Russian government maintains employment in key regions and prevents a collapse in industrial output. However, economists from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace warn that this "military Keynesianism" creates long-term structural risks, as resources are diverted away from civilian sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
What are the Kremlin’s stated objectives?
President Putin has consistently stated that the "special military operation" is designed to "demilitarize" and "denazify" Ukraine, though these claims are rejected by the Ukrainian government and international monitors. According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, there is no evidence to support the Kremlin’s claims regarding the necessity of the invasion.
Instead, analysts point to the goal of preventing Ukraine from integrating into Western institutions. By maintaining control over occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, the Russian government aims to create a strategic buffer zone. The Institute for the Study of War notes that Moscow views territorial concessions as a sign of weakness that would undermine its broader influence in the post-Soviet space.
How does the domestic narrative sustain the war?
The Russian state maintains control over the domestic narrative through strict media censorship and the criminalization of dissent. According to Human Rights Watch, laws enacted shortly after the February 2022 invasion prohibit "discrediting" the armed forces, effectively silencing public opposition.
By framing the conflict as an existential battle against the "collective West," the government garners support from a population that has been largely shielded from the immediate, daily realities of the front line. State-controlled media emphasizes the perceived threat of NATO, keeping the focus on national security rather than the loss of life or the redirection of social funds.
What happens if the war ends?
The transition from a wartime economy to a peacetime one presents a significant challenge for the Russian government. According to the International Monetary Fund, the current reliance on military production leaves the country vulnerable to a sharp downturn if hostilities were to cease.
If Russia were to stop the war, it would face the "post-war trap"—a scenario where the massive workforce currently employed in defense plants would need to be reintegrated into a struggling civilian economy. This potential for economic instability, combined with the political risks of admitting a failure to achieve its stated objectives, serves as a major barrier to a negotiated end to the conflict.