South Australia Liberals Face Existential Crisis as Election Looms

Adelaide – The South Australian Liberal Party is bracing for a potentially devastating defeat in the upcoming March 21st election, raising fears about the party’s future viability. Once a dominant force in the state, the Liberals now face the prospect of being reduced to a minor presence in the South Australian Parliament, mirroring the scale of their 2021 defeat in Western Australia.

From Triumph to Trepidation

In 2018, Steven Marshall led the Liberal Party to victory, ending 16 years of Labor rule and defeating Premier Jay Weatherill . Marshall celebrated with supporters as The Killers’ song “The Man” played, symbolizing a novel dawn for South Australia. However, that optimism has faded. Four years later, the Marshall government was ousted in a landslide victory for Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Party. Now, another four years on, the Liberals are facing what some insiders describe as an existential threat.

A Party Divided and Under Siege

Current polling data paints a grim picture for the Liberals, led by Ashton Hurn. Some party insiders fear they could be reduced to fewer than five seats in the 47-member lower house, potentially being wiped out in metropolitan Adelaide. The party has already lost both of its federal lower house seats in Adelaide, losing Sturt and failing to regain Boothby in the 2025 national poll. The traditionally Liberal seat of Mayo is now held by independent Rebekha Sharkie.

The Liberals are facing pressure from multiple sides. They are being squeezed out of the political center by Malinauskas’s centrist Labor government and challenged on their right flank by Cory Bernardi’s One Nation.

Internal Strife and Leadership Challenges

The party’s decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including leadership changes, scandals, internal factionalism, and the influence of the religious right. Hurn took over as opposition leader roughly 100 days before the election, becoming the party’s fourth leader in four years. While described as “terrific” and hardworking by some, she is widely expected to lead the Liberals to their worst election defeat in decades.

One Victorian federal senator reportedly said that “no person in their sane mind” would have volunteered to lead the party given the circumstances.

Malinauskas’s Popularity and Labor’s Resurgence

Premier Peter Malinauskas has proven to be a popular leader, actively courting the business community while maintaining a traditional Labor agenda on health and education. Labor’s resurgence began during the previous term in opposition, with Malinauskas replacing Jay Weatherill as leader in 2018. Weatherill previously served as Premier of South Australia from 2011 to 2018 and later became the High Commissioner of Australia to the United Kingdom, assuming office on January 27, 2026.

Labor won eight Liberal-held seats in the 2022 election, including several traditionally conservative districts.

The Road Ahead

As the election approaches, the South Australian Liberal Party faces an uphill battle. The outcome on March 21st will not only determine the next government but could also shape the future of the party itself. The extent of the damage will be closely watched by political observers across Australia, as it may signal broader challenges for the Liberal Party nationwide.