Global Volcanic Risk Assessment: Why Experts are Calling for Improved Monitoring

Volcanologists and disaster risk experts meeting in Scotland at the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) are urging world leaders to prioritize investment in global volcanic monitoring systems. Despite the potential for large-scale eruptions to disrupt international supply chains and climate stability, researchers warn that a significant portion of the world’s active volcanoes remain unmonitored, leaving critical infrastructure and populations vulnerable to sudden geological activity.

Why is global volcanic monitoring currently insufficient?

While high-profile volcanoes in nations like the United States, Japan, and Iceland benefit from sophisticated sensor arrays, many high-risk volcanoes in developing regions lack basic instrumentation. According to the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program, there are approximately 1,350 potentially active volcanoes worldwide, yet only a fraction are monitored by ground-based seismic equipment. The lack of data makes it nearly impossible to provide the early warnings necessary to evacuate communities or ground aviation traffic before an ash cloud reaches critical altitudes.

Experts at the conference highlighted that the reliance on satellite imagery alone is inadequate. While satellites can detect thermal anomalies, ground-based sensors—such as seismometers and gas-monitoring equipment—are essential for identifying the subtle, deep-earth shifts that precede a major eruption. Without these, authorities are often forced to react only after an eruption has already begun.

What are the economic risks of a major eruption?

The economic impact of volcanic activity extends far beyond the immediate vicinity of the crater. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland serves as a primary case study for global risk. That event resulted in the largest air-traffic shutdown since World War II, costing the global economy an estimated $1.7 billion in lost revenue. Modern supply chains are even more “just-in-time” today, meaning even a localized disruption can trigger a cascade of delays across manufacturing and logistics sectors.

Researchers contrast the 2010 event with the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption. The Tonga event demonstrated that submarine volcanoes, which are notoriously difficult to monitor, pose an underestimated threat to undersea communication cables and regional maritime trade. Unlike land-based volcanoes, these underwater threats remain largely invisible until they trigger tsunamis or atmospheric pressure waves.

How can world leaders improve disaster preparedness?

The scientific community is advocating for a three-pronged approach to improve global volcanic resilience:

• Increased Funding for Seismic Networks: Investing in affordable, solar-powered, and satellite-linked monitoring stations for volcanoes in underserved regions.
• Improved Data Sharing: Establishing a standardized global protocol for sharing volcanic data between national geological surveys to ensure that aviation and maritime authorities have real-time access to risk assessments.
• Public-Private Partnerships: Encouraging airline and logistics companies to contribute to monitoring infrastructure as a form of “geological insurance” to protect their own long-term operations.

The conference underscored that volcanic risk is not merely a local environmental concern but a systemic global hazard. As nations look to harden their infrastructure against climate change, experts argue that volcanic monitoring must be integrated into broader disaster risk reduction strategies. The goal is to move from a culture of reactive emergency response to one of proactive, data-driven mitigation.

Key Takeaways

• Most active volcanoes globally lack ground-based monitoring systems, creating significant gaps in early warning capabilities.
• Major eruptions can cause multi-billion dollar losses by disrupting global aviation and maritime supply chains.
• The 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption remains the benchmark for how volcanic ash can paralyze modern international trade.
• Experts recommend increased investment in sensor technology and international data-sharing agreements to mitigate future impacts.