Winter 2025-2026 Forecast: Mild Temperatures and Variable Precipitation
2025/11/26 04:44:01
the winter quarter is expected to be frequently influenced by ocean conditions, with occasional disturbances rather than prolonged cold spells. The presence of El Niño in the Pacific and a possibly unstable polar vortex could occasionally bring colder periods, but the season is generally expected to be milder.
Details by Month:
December 2025: A Mild Start to Winter, with No Clear Rainfall signal
Temperatures: A positive temperature anomaly of between +0.5°C and +1.0°C compared to normal is anticipated, with few prolonged cold snaps.However, alternating periods of polar air and warmer spells could balance the month, similar to November. Confidence in temperatures remaining above seasonal averages is good.
Precipitation: Precipitation is expected to be near seasonal values, potentially slightly below normal, notably in the north and east, due to less active disturbances moving eastward. Reliability is low, with no single scenario being dominant.
General Context: The dominant air circulation is expected to be from west to southwest, influenced by Atlantic low-pressure systems. Disturbed weather will alternate with calmer periods, limiting snow cover on plains but ensuring regular snowfall in mountainous regions.
january 2026: A More Contrasting Month, Quite Disturbed and Generally Mild
Temperatures: A thermal surplus is expected to continue, averaging +0.5°C to +1.0°C nationally. Though,some colder periods are possible due to cooling in continental Europe.The probability of milder temperatures prevailing remains above 60%.
Precipitation: A slight excess of precipitation (+5% to +20%) is anticipated, especially in the west, south, and mountainous areas exposed to westerly winds. Elsewhere, precipitation levels are expected to be near normal. This forecast has average confidence.
General Context: A renewed dynamic oceanic flow will likely lead to a succession of Atlantic disturbances, with the risk of strong winds and snowy events.