The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 is projected to range between 3.5% and 3.6%, according to recent estimates from policy analysts and advocacy groups based on government inflation data. This potential adjustment could mark the highest increase in three years for approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries, following a 2.8% boost implemented for 2026 checks.
Projections from Senior Advocacy Groups
AARP now forecasts a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027, an increase from its prior 3.5% estimate released in August. According to calculations by the nonprofit organization, a 3.6% adjustment would raise the average retired worker’s monthly benefit by $75. Meanwhile, The Senior Citizens League projects a slightly lower increase of 3.5%, down from its previous 3.6% forecast. That nonpartisan senior group estimates the adjustment would add $67.90 to average monthly benefit checks.
Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson also projects a 3.5% adjustment, factoring in consumer price index data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Johnson noted that future projections remain vulnerable to volatility in oil prices, which have significantly influenced inflation metrics since the conflict in Iran began.
How the Social Security COLA is Calculated
The annual adjustment is determined by changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as the CPI-W, which is calculated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. To establish the adjustment percentage, the Social Security Administration averages the CPI-W values for the third-quarter months of July, August, and September, and compares that figure to the average from the same period in the prior year.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the CPI-W increased by 3.5% over the 12-month period ending in August, while the broader consumer price index rose by 3.4% as consumer costs climbed. Over the past decade, adjustments have fluctuated widely, ranging from a 0% change in 2016 to an 8.7% spike in 2023 driven by post-pandemic inflation. The adjustment has averaged roughly 3.1% over the last ten years, according to Social Security Administration data.
Timeline for the Official 2027 Announcement
The official cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 depends on one final month of third-quarter inflation data. The Social Security Administration typically announces the finalized percentage adjustment in October, once the complete third-quarter CPI-W numbers are officially recorded and compared against historical baselines.
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