South Australia Election: Labor Premier Malinauskas on Track for Victory Amidst One Nation Surge

South Australia’s state election, held on Saturday, March 21, 2026, is projecting a likely victory for incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Party, despite a notable surge in support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. The election serves as a key test for One Nation’s growing influence in national politics, following the 2025 federal election.

Labor Poised for Re-election

Early results and polling data indicate that Labor is set to secure a significant number of seats, building on its existing 29 of the 47 state seats. The party entered the campaign as the clear favorite, benefiting from Premier Malinauskas’s personal popularity and internal challenges within the Liberal opposition. More than 35% of voters cast their ballots before election day, a record turnout, significantly higher than the approximately 17% recorded in the 2022 poll.

One Nation Gains Momentum

Despite Labor’s projected win, One Nation has demonstrated increased support in South Australia. Pauline Hanson, the federal leader of One Nation, spent the week leading up to the election campaigning in regional areas alongside Cory Bernardi, the party’s state leader and a former Liberal senator. This election marks the first real test of One Nation’s growing national support since the 2025 federal election.

Confrontations and Key Issues

The campaign was not without its contentious moments. Pauline Hanson confronted Premier Malinauskas over his comments regarding immigration, specifically his statement about the demand for immigrants to provide care for the elderly – a remark Hanson characterized as “putting people down.” Malinauskas defended his comments as reasonable within the context of the discussion.

Malinauskas also faced scrutiny over the government’s response to an algal bloom crisis and acknowledged a failure to address ambulance ramping at hospitals, a key promise from the 2022 election.

Liberal Party Struggles

The Liberal opposition, led by first-term MP Ashton Hurn (appointed late in 2025 after a period of leadership instability), is expected to see its lower-house seats reduced to single digits. Hurn became the party’s fourth leader in four years, highlighting the internal turmoil that plagued the Liberals throughout the term.

Malinauskas’s Second-Term Agenda

A victory for Malinauskas is expected to provide a mandate for his second-term agenda, which focuses on increasing housing availability, making public education free, and limiting children’s screen time.

Fresh Electoral Laws

This election was the first conducted under South Australia’s new electoral laws, which prohibit donations to political parties.

National Implications

Federal Labor will closely monitor the results, while the federal Coalition, including opposition leader Angus Taylor and Nationals leader Matt Canavan, will be particularly focused on One Nation’s performance. Counting is expected to continue until 1:00 AM on Sunday morning.