Escalating Tensions: Pakistan and Afghanistan Edge Towards Open War Amidst Broader Regional Conflicts
As the conflict in Iran intensifies, a separate but increasingly dangerous crisis is unfolding between Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Recent clashes, including Pakistani airstrikes within Afghanistan and retaliatory attacks by the Taliban, have raised concerns about a potential full-scale conflict, further destabilizing a region already grappling with geopolitical turmoil.
Recent Escalation of Hostilities
The most recent surge in violence occurred over the weekend of February 28th – March 1st, 2026. Pakistan launched airstrikes targeting locations across Afghanistan, including the major cities of Kabul and Kandahar [1]. The Taliban responded by targeting dozens of Pakistani border posts. These strikes continued into Sunday, with Pakistan again hitting targets in Kabul.
Pakistan maintains that these strikes were aimed at terrorist groups and Taliban military facilities. However, the Taliban alleges that civilian populations were impacted [1]. The fighting began prior to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, but experts warn that the situation to Iran’s east should not be overlooked [1].
Root Causes of the Conflict
Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been simmering since the Taliban regained power in 2021. While Pakistan previously supported the Taliban during the US-led war in Afghanistan, providing a cross-border sanctuary, relations have deteriorated significantly. The primary source of friction is Pakistan’s accusation that the Taliban is sheltering the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a terrorist organization responsible for a growing number of attacks within Pakistan since 2021 [3].
The TTP previously waged a campaign of terror across Pakistan between 2007 and 2014, before being pushed back by Pakistani military operations. However, many militants were displaced into Afghanistan during these operations [3]. Taliban leaders deny providing shelter to the TTP, but evidence suggests a long-standing alliance, including previous joint operations and the TTP’s historical ties to the Haqqani Network, a brutal faction within the Taliban [1].
Regional Implications and International Response
The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is occurring against the backdrop of a wider regional crisis, exacerbated by the ongoing war in the Middle East following the strikes on Iran. Experts fear that the South Asian conflict could be further inflamed by the situation in the Middle East [1].
In late February 2026, Pakistan’s defense minister described the situation as an “open war” with Afghanistan [3]. As of March 2, 2026, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan has recorded at least 146 civilian casualties, including 42 deaths and 104 injuries, though these figures are preliminary [3].
The Taliban has expressed willingness to negotiate with Pakistan, but concerns remain that the conflict will escalate further, adding to the instability of the region [3].
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Stance
Pakistan has too strongly condemned the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar describing the offensive as “unwarranted attacks” and a violation of international law [2]. This position was communicated directly to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in a phone call.