Family defaults begin to grow. Banks have begun to detect signs that point to greater difficulties for clients to meet their payment commitments as the rise in rates has been transferred to the economy and all forecasts indicate that the difficulties will get worse.
Gonzalo GortazarCEO of CaixaBank, described it yesterday as a “change in trend” in which large entities and banking supervisors agree. “In the last quarter, the sector’s figures indicate a small increase in mortgage delinquencies. We are talking about a change in trend, but very gradual, where there is a certain logic given the impact of the rate increase on mortgage payments,” he assured. during his speech at the XIV Financial Meeting organized by the newspaper Expansion y KPMG.
This is the general impression in the sector and also among banking supervisors, who thus confirm the effects of the tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB). At a general level, the default rate remains at a minimum of 3.5%, but the signs accumulate in the microdatos of the entities. For example, the percentage of loans under special surveillance, those up to date with payments but with doubts of possible deterioration, stands at 6.8%, one point more than before the outbreak of the pandemic.
The large banking groups follow developments closely, but avoid alarmism. “We are busy but not worried,” said the CEO of BBVA, Onur Genç, during their participation in the event. In his opinion, the strength of the labor market in Spain and the reduction in household and company debt in recent years are helping to mitigate the impact of the rate rise. Still, Genç was cautious. “We must be cautious,” he added.
Along these lines, Gortázar predicted that the deterioration of these indicators will be “smooth, and not with the slope of 12 years ago”, when delinquency exceeded 6%. It will be a “gradual, orderly and logical” increase, said the CEO of CaixaBank.