The kitesurfing forecast for Cat Bay in Victoria’s Bass Coast Shire calls for a stretch of good wind over the coming period, with sustained speeds climbing to 10.2 m/s and gusts reaching 14.5 m/s, according to Windy.app. The strongest reading in the forecast window pairs that 10.2 m/s wind with a 14.5 m/s gust, a combination the site flags as strong wind requiring skill.
Across the seven forecast blocks, sustained wind speeds range from a low of 6.2 m/s to the 10.2 m/s peak, with gusts spanning 8.1 m/s to 14.5 m/s. Windy.app rates every block as a good kitesurfing forecast with little divergence between models.
Wave Height and Water Temperature Add to the Picture
One forecast block also carries a wave height of 2.2 m, which Windy.app classifies as requiring skill. Water temperatures across the period sit between 16.7°C and 17.2°C, and every block carries a wetsuit-required notice.
Breeze Probability Swings From 55% to 11%
The site’s experimental Breeze Index, which estimates how likely a breeze is to form, shows wide variation across the period. Probability starts at 55% in the first two blocks, falls to 33% and 37% in the middle of the window, drops to 25% and 30% later, and bottoms out at 11% in the final block with a wind speed of 8.8 m/s and a 10.4 m/s gust.
How the Forecast Blocks Compare
| Wind speed (m/s) | Gust (m/s) | Breeze probability |
|---|---|---|
| 9.4 | 11.0 | 55% |
| 10.2 | 14.5 | 55% |
| 7.1 | 10.0 | 33% |
| 9.8 | 10.6 | 37% |
| 7.7 | 8.1 | 25% |
| 6.2 | 8.5 | 30% |
| 8.8 | 10.4 | 11% |
What Riders Should Know
Windy.app notes the Breeze Index is a new experimental feature available in weather alerts and the meteogram, letting users see breeze likelihood directly in the forecast. For Cat Bay, the data points to a period where wind is present throughout but the certainty of a forming breeze declines sharply toward the end of the window, where the 11% probability is the lowest reading in the set.