Going on vacation is not an option for those who want to take advantage of the last pull in the profitability of Treasury Bills. And Spanish families know it. Proof of this is that In August alone, more than 2,000 million euros were spent on this type of State debt, the largest monthly amount in a year marked by the fever for Letters. But it doesn’t stop there. The homes have been made in the four auctions that the Treasury has held this month with almost a third of the 6,900 million euros that have been issued; Or what is the same, of every 100 euros placed, 29 have ended up in his hands. It should be remembered that individuals have priority in auctions over professional investors and, therefore, the amount they request from the Treasury is always fully covered.
August has broken a downward trend in the demand for State debt by families, after a few months in which interest seemed to be much more contained. It is not trivial. The last four auctions -two of which were held this Wednesday- are the first to take place after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates in the Eurozone to 2008 highs, up to 4.25%. , in a journey that began in July of last year and during which there has been no meeting that has not ended with a new rise in the price of money. But now the situation has changed.
For the first time in thirteen months Christine Lagarde has shown herself willing not to make a move and leave the board how are you. The market is already taking it for granted and this can be seen in the returns offered by bonds and debt from companies and States, as is the case with Treasury Bills, the most popular product among Spanish savers. Where is it observed? In the performance they offer. The last time twelve-month bills were placed, a week ago, it was done at an interest rate of 3.682% and this is less than the nine-month debt, which yesterday placed its yield at 3.7%. A market anomaly that can be explained by the fact that investors are already seeing a drop in rates next summer.
Another key issue that demonstrates the change in trend is the almost imperceptible fall that has occurred in Bills auctions for the second consecutive week. What is much more evident is that the types have frozen and that, ultimately, the historical yields offered by the Bills may have peaked or already be very close to doing so. The next auction to verify it will be on September 5 for 6 and 12-month debt.
In the eight months of the year, Spanish households have spent 11,089 million euros on Bills, 19% of the total that the Treasury has placed on the market (above 57,300 million). And the interest goes from less to more as the duration progresses. This implies that the greatest interest resides in twelve-month bills, the most similar to a deposit, whose yield to maturity is slightly below 3.7%.