Washington Capitals: Can They Keep Up the Surprise Success?

The Washington Capitals entered the 2023-24 season facing low expectations. After being swept out of the first round by the New York Rangers in the previous playoffs, many predicted a decline. Instead, they’ve emerged as the NHL’s biggest surprise, boasting the third-best points percentage in the league (.706) heading into the holiday break.

Ovechkin’s Historic Chase Fuels Early Success

Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record ignited the Capitals’ offense. He started the season with a blistering pace, scoring 15 goals in his first 18 games, closing the gap to 26 goals. However, a fractured left fibula sidelined him last month. Ovechkin is set to return on Saturday against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

While Ovechkin’s absence has impacted the Capitals’ scoring, their offense thrived early on, netting at least five goals in nine of their first 18 games. The team’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage has dipped significantly since Ovechkin’s injury, falling from 14.8 percent to 7.3 percent over the past 16 games.

The Capitals’ power play has also undergone a transformation without Ovechkin’s one-timer prowess. Shot attempts have become more evenly distributed, with 56.4 percent originating from the slot, compared to 45.5 percent with Ovechkin in the lineup. Ten of their past 13 power-play goals have been scored from the slot, led by Tom Wilson’s four. It will be fascinating to observe how the power play adapts upon Ovechkin’s return.

Dubois Finds New Life in Washington

Pierre-Luc Dubois’ reputation took a hit after being traded by the Los Angeles Kings less than a year after signing an eight-year contract. Now on his fourth team in eight seasons, Dubois has flourished in Washington, recording 21 assists and 26 points in 34 games, including a team-leading 14 points in 16 games without Ovechkin. This represents a significant improvement over his 40 points in 82 games last season.

Dubois has been instrumental in driving offensive production, generating 58.1 percent of expected goals at 5-on-5 alongside McMichael and Wilson. Actual goals have favored Washington 29-18 (61.7 percent) during Dubois’ ice time. Head coach Spencer Carbery has praised Dubois’ impact, stating, “He’s had a fantastic start to the year and been a huge part of why we’ve been successful.”

Dubois’ playmaking abilities have been on full display, completing 1.76 passes to the slot per 20 minutes at 5-on-5, ranking 25th among 428 forwards who have played at least 100 minutes in that situation. After spending most of his time in Los Angeles in a bottom-six role, Dubois appears revitalized as Washington’s second-line center. He commented, “It just feels natural. It feels like I’m asked to do a job that I know that I can do.”

Thompson’s Stellar Play Anchors Strong Goaltending Duo

While the Capitals’ offense has cooled slightly, their goaltending duo of Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren has remained a force. Thompson leads all Canadian goalies this season in goals saved above expected (GSAE) and ranks sixth overall. His 12.8 GSAE is virtually identical to the combined GSAE of Team Canada’s three goalies selected for the 4 Nations Face-Off: Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill, and Sam Montembeault (12.93).

Thompson has recorded a positive GSAE in 14 of his 17 starts, and his 82.4 quality-start percentage is tied with Toronto’s Anthony Stolarz for the league lead. Lindgren has also been solid, saving 3.5 goals above expected in 17 starts. As a tandem, Thompson and Lindgren’s combined 16.3 GSAE ranks sixth best in the league.

Can the Capitals Keep It Going?

It was unlikely that the Capitals would maintain their torrid scoring pace throughout the entire season. However, their strong start has provided a solid foundation. They have likely banked enough points to weather any potential rough patches. The Capitals’ success hinges on the continued contributions of Ovechkin, Dubois, and their impressive goaltending duo.

Will the Capitals’ surprise run continue? Stay tuned to find out!