Meloni Walks Tightrope as Trump Strikes in Iran Threaten Referendum

ROME — U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent airstrikes on Iran are creating a political challenge for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as Italy prepares for a crucial referendum on March 22-23. Polls suggest Meloni risks losing the referendum, which, while ostensibly about judicial reform, has become a broader measure of confidence in her right-wing government.

Trump’s Unpopularity in Italy

Meloni’s close alliance with Trump is proving problematic, as he is highly unpopular in Italy. According to a Yougov poll, 77 percent of Italians hold an “unfavorable” view of the former U.S. President [Politico].

Economic Concerns and Energy Prices

The conflict is also exacerbating fears of an energy price shock in Italy, a country already burdened with some of the highest power prices in the European Union [Politico].

Balancing Act: Support for Allies Without Direct Involvement

Meloni is attempting to navigate a delicate balance, avoiding direct criticism of Trump while reassuring Italian voters that Rome will not be drawn into a war. On Thursday, March 6, 2026, she pledged air-defense support to Gulf states targeted by retaliatory fire from Iran and her defense minister announced Italy would send “naval assets” to protect Cyprus [Reuters].

However, Meloni has insisted that Italy will not provide direct support to a U.S.-Israeli war against Tehran. She also noted that U.S. Bases in Italy are authorized only for logistical support, not offensive operations [Politico]. “We’re not at war; we don’t wish to go to war,” she stated to RTL radio [Politico].

Referendum at a Critical Juncture

This situation arises at a particularly sensitive time for Meloni, as the referendum is considered too close to call, with turnout expected to be a decisive factor. A loss would be a significant setback for a politician who has enjoyed considerable success both domestically and within the EU [Politico].

Italy’s Position on U.S. Base Agreements

Prime Minister Meloni affirmed that Italy will uphold existing agreements governing the use of U.S. Military bases on its territory, but reiterated that Italy does not intend to enter the war [TRT World]. She stated that Italy has not received any requests to use these bases for military action against Iran [TRT World].

Concerns Over Regional Escalation

Meloni has warned of the potential for regional escalation and the economic impacts on Italy, emphasizing the need for a return to diplomacy regarding the Iranian nuclear issue [TRT World].