Trump Eyes Regime Change in Cuba Following Strikes in Iran and Venezuela

Whispers are circulating within the White House and at Mar-a-Lago of a potentially transformative, and previously unthinkable, plan by President Donald Trump: the toppling of autocracies in Cuba, following recent actions in Iran and Venezuela. Just weeks after a strike led to the capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and coinciding with military action against Iran, Trump is now publicly considering Cuba as a next target.

A Pattern of Intervention

According to administration officials, Trump feels emboldened by recent events, believing a pattern of successful leadership changes is emerging. He has openly discussed a “friendly takeover” of Cuba, a nation of 11 million people, and indicated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is engaged in high-level discussions with Cuban leaders, including unofficial contact with Raúl Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, grandson of former President Raúl Castro .

The Venezuela Model

Trump has pointed to Venezuela as a successful example of regime change, noting that “everybody’s kept their job except for two people” following Maduro’s capture and subsequent indictment on narco-terrorism conspiracy charges . The operation in Venezuela was carried out by the US Army’s Delta Force with assistance from the FBI .

Challenges and Risks in Cuba

Despite the president’s ambitions, a transition in Cuba presents unique challenges. A potential influx of refugees to the United States, coupled with the lack of a strong, organized opposition after decades of repressive rule, could complicate matters. Negotiating a settlement that maintains the existing regime whereas placing the U.S. In a position of control, similar to the approach in Venezuela, is being considered.

A Legacy-Defining Pursuit

Administration officials suggest Trump views these potential regime changes as opportunities to cement his legacy, surpassing that of past presidents like Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, and Richard Nixon. This marks a significant shift from the isolationist rhetoric that characterized his earlier campaigns and first term .

Broader Strategic Goals

Iran’s nuclear ambitions and perceived threats to U.S. Interests, along with a desire to solidify dominance in the Western Hemisphere, are driving these actions. Trump has also expressed interest in proposals such as annexing Greenland, taking over the Panama Canal, and adding Canada as the 51st state .

Concerns and Warnings

The potential for escalation and unintended consequences is raising concerns. Experts warn that a police state like Cuba, with a population having “no incentive to give up,” could lead to a protracted and difficult conflict. The U.S. Military is already facing demands in multiple regions, including the Caribbean and the Persian Gulf .

Economic and Humanitarian Considerations

The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that restricting Cuba’s access to oil could lead to a humanitarian “collapse,” exacerbating the country’s existing economic crisis . Cuba’s economy is struggling, and Russia’s ability to provide support is limited by its war in Ukraine.