ukraine’s Future Hinges on pressuring Russia,Not Ukraine,Experts Argue
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According to recent analysis from political commentators,a lasting peace in Ukraine requires focusing diplomatic and economic pressure on Russia,rather than demanding concessions from Ukraine. Without robust security guarantees and sustained pressure on Russia,Ukraine’s long-term viability as a nation is in question,experts warn. This analysis comes as discussions continue regarding potential negotiations and the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The Core Issue: Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Anne Applebaum, a staff writer at The Atlantic, articulated the central problem: if Ukraine were to cease fighting today without concrete security assurances, its future remains deeply uncertain.”They don’t have any kind of security guarantee,” Applebaum explained during a recent discussion on PBS NewsHour’s Washington Week. “Without that, their country is unviable-as who will want to live there or invest there if they know that the war is going to start, you know, next year or next month or in six months?”
this highlights a essential concern: a cessation of hostilities without a binding agreement to prevent future Russian aggression leaves Ukraine vulnerable to renewed attacks, hindering economic recovery and discouraging long-term investment. A stable and prosperous Ukraine requires a credible assurance that the conflict is “really, really over.”
Shifting the Focus to Russia
Applebaum argues that the key to achieving this lasting peace lies in increasing pressure on Russia. “the only way you achieve that is to put pressure not on Ukraine, but on Russia,” she stated. She expressed concern that the current U.S.administration appears hesitant to fully acknowledge this dynamic, suggesting a disconnect between the perceived solution and the actual path to resolution. “It’s almost as if the Trump administration doesn’t want to admit, or can’t understand, that the war only ends when the pressure is put on Russia.”
This perspective aligns with arguments that Russia initiated the conflict and continues to be the primary obstacle to a peaceful resolution.Increased sanctions, stricter enforcement of existing sanctions, and providing Ukraine with the resources to defend itself are all seen as ways to increase the cost of the war for Russia and incentivize a genuine commitment to peace.
expert Panel Discussion
The discussion featured a panel of experts including:
* Anne Applebaum, staff writer at The Atlantic
* Susan Glasser, staff writer at The New Yorker
* Amna Nawaz, co-anchor at PBS NewsHour
* Vivian Salama, staff writer at The Atlantic
* Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic
The panel collectively emphasized the need for a strategic shift in approach, prioritizing measures that directly impact Russia’s ability and willingness to continue the war.
What Kind of Security Guarantees?
While the exact form of security guarantees remains a subject of debate, potential options include:
* NATO Membership: Ukraine’s long-term aspiration is full membership in NATO. however, this is currently blocked by the ongoing conflict and concerns about escalating tensions with Russia. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics/ukraine.htm
* Bilateral Security Agreements: Agreements with individual countries, such as the united States, the United Kingdom, and France, offering security assistance and commitments to defend Ukraine in the event of future aggression.
* Multilateral Security Framework: A broader international agreement involving multiple countries, providing a collective security guarantee for Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
* Ukraine’s long-term viability depends on receiving credible security guarantees.
* Experts believe the primary focus should be on increasing pressure on Russia to end the war.
* A lasting peace requires a shift in strategy, prioritizing measures that disincentivize further Russian aggression.
* The form of security guarantees for Ukraine is still under discussion, with options ranging from NATO membership to bilateral and multilateral agreements.
Watch the full episode of Washington Week here: https://www.pbs.org/weta/washingtonweek/
The situation remains fluid, and the path to a lasting peace in Ukraine is complex. However, the consensus among these experts is clear: a sustainable solution requires addressing the root cause of the conflict – Russia’s aggression – and providing Ukraine with the security it needs to rebuild and thrive.
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