Turkey Navigates US-Iran Conflict, Sees Potential for Back-Channel Talks

ANKARA, Turkey — Despite a lack of formal diplomatic initiatives, Turkey believes Iran remains open to discreet negotiations with the United States, according to Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. This assessment comes as Ankara seeks to avoid being drawn into the escalating conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.

Turkey’s Neutral Stance and Mediation Efforts

Turkey has maintained a neutral position throughout the conflict, criticizing both the U.S. And Israeli strikes on Iran, as well as Iran’s retaliatory actions against Gulf states hosting U.S. Bases. Fidan has been actively attempting to persuade Iran to de-escalate those attacks. Prior to the recent hostilities, Turkey attempted to mediate a solution by offering Istanbul as a venue for talks involving the U.S., Iran, and other regional countries. However, Iran ultimately chose Oman as a mediator, focusing solely on its nuclear program – negotiations that ultimately failed. AP News

Iran’s Response to Attacks and Potential for Diplomacy

Fidan stated that the conditions are “not particularly much conducive” to diplomacy at present, with Iranians feeling “betrayed” after being attacked while engaged in nuclear negotiations with the U.S. For a second time. Despite this, he believes Iran remains receptive to “any sensible back-channel diplomacy.” AP News

Missile Interception and NATO Involvement

Turkey’s commitment to remaining outside the conflict was tested recently when three missiles, believed to originate from Iran, were intercepted over Turkish territory by NATO defenses. While Iranian officials have denied targeting Turkey, data suggests otherwise, according to Fidan. Turkey, a NATO member, hosts U.S. Troops at an air base in southern Turkey. Despite the provocation, Fidan ruled out a military response, emphasizing Ankara’s “primary objective” is to stay out of the war. AP News

Leadership Transition in Iran and the Role of the Revolutionary Guards

Fidan acknowledged uncertainty surrounding the health of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, following a strike during the conflict’s initial phase, but confirmed he is “alive and functioning.” The transition in leadership, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28th, has created a power vacuum that Fidan believes has been filled by the high command of the Revolutionary Guards. AP News

Turkey-Iran Relations and Regional Concerns

Turkey shares a 530km border with Iran and imports natural gas from the country, creating a mutual interest in regional stability. The National News Despite differences, including Turkey’s concerns over Iran’s alleged support for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Ankara opposed foreign military intervention, particularly while nuclear negotiations were ongoing. The National News

Tensions with Israel

Relations between Turkey and Israel are strained, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan being a vocal critic of Israel’s actions in Gaza. Turkey has severed trade ties with Israel and accuses it of genocide, while Israel accuses Turkey of supporting Hamas. Fidan dismissed the possibility of Turkey becoming the next target of Israeli action, but noted that Israel consistently seeks to identify adversaries to advance its agenda. He also criticized Israel’s actions in Syria, alleging a pursuit of territorial expansion rather than security. AP News

Turkey’s Role in Gaza and the Board of Peace

Turkey has joined President Trump’s Board of Peace, despite its criticism and boycott by other nations, viewing it as an opportunity to halt the war in Gaza. Turkey has also offered to contribute troops to an international stabilization force in Gaza, but this is reportedly facing opposition from Israel. Turkey’s priority remains the establishment of an administration committee for Gaza, comprised of politically independent Palestinian administrators. AP News