KYIV—For much of the past two years, Ukraine’s defense industry has focused exclusively on supplying its own forces as they counter Russian advances. That focus is now shifting. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently announced plans to begin exporting domestically produced arms, positioning Ukraine’s battlefield-tested technology as a foundation for new partnerships and revenue while carefully managing the risks of sensitive technology falling into Moscow’s hands.
The centerpiece of this strategy is Drone Deals, a structured program designed to provide foreign governments with access to Ukrainian drones, missiles, artillery shells, and integrated defense software. The initiative reflects a deliberate calculation: that Ukraine’s wartime innovations—particularly in unmanned systems and electronic warfare—have demonstrated value that could attract international buyers, provided the country can maintain control over distribution.
From Battlefield to Market: Ukraine’s Defense Surplus
Ukraine’s move toward arms exports stems from a practical reality: its defense sector is producing more equipment than its military can immediately deploy. Officials have indicated that manufacturing capacity for certain systems has expanded significantly, creating a surplus that could be directed toward foreign sales. This shift follows substantial investments in domestic production, supported by both state funding and international cooperation since the escalation of the conflict.
In a recent statement, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine’s security expertise and weapons, refined through modern warfare, hold value for partners seeking effective defense solutions. The country’s defense sector has undergone rapid transformation, with unmanned systems emerging as a particularly strong capability. Ukrainian manufacturers have increased output of various drone models, from short-range reconnaissance platforms to systems designed for longer-range operations. The industry has also developed electronic warfare tools to address the challenges posed by adversary drone operations, drawing on direct battlefield experience.
However, the decision to export carries inherent risks. Ukraine’s military continues to face high demand for weapons, and officials have stressed that domestic needs will remain the top priority. Zelensky outlined a tiered approach, stating that foreign sales would only proceed after ensuring that Ukraine’s armed forces receive the necessary volume of equipment. This framework aims to balance the economic benefits of exports with the country’s ongoing security requirements.
Drone Deals: A Framework for Controlled Exports
The Drone Deals program is structured to facilitate arms sales while maintaining rigorous oversight. Under the initiative, Ukraine will negotiate bilateral agreements with partner countries, establishing the legal and logistical parameters for exports. These agreements will cover not only the sale of finished weapons but also technology transfers, joint production arrangements, and the integration of Ukrainian systems into foreign defense networks.
Zelensky described the process as a two-stage system. Initially, governments would sign interstate agreements defining the scope of cooperation. Following this, Ukrainian state institutions and manufacturers would work directly with foreign counterparts to implement the deals. The approach is designed to ensure clarity and reciprocity, with Ukraine seeking partnerships that offer mutual benefits in security cooperation.
To streamline the export process, Ukraine plans to introduce measures to reduce bureaucratic delays while preserving export controls. The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) will oversee the program, with a particular focus on preventing weapons from reaching adversaries, especially Russia. Zelensky acknowledged the seriousness of this challenge, noting that export approvals would depend on thorough vetting of potential buyers to minimize the risk of technology leakage.
The program’s emphasis on technology exchange distinguishes it from conventional arms sales. Ukraine is positioning itself not just as a supplier of hardware but as a source of expertise in drone warfare, electronic countermeasures, and battlefield integration. For potential partners, this could provide access to systems that have been tested and refined under real combat conditions—a factor that could make Ukrainian offerings particularly appealing.
Who’s Buying? The Geopolitics of Ukrainian Arms
Ukraine has not yet disclosed which countries are engaged in discussions about the Drone Deals program, but the selection of potential partners is expected to be influenced by shared security interests and a willingness to adhere to Ukraine’s conditions. Officials have indicated that exports will not be available to nations collaborating with Russia, though the specific list of restricted countries has not been made public.
Researchers have noted that countries with existing defense ties to Ukraine, particularly those in NATO and the broader European region, may be among the first to explore the program. Nations that have supported Ukraine’s war effort, such as Poland and the Baltic states, could be early adopters. Beyond Europe, interest may come from countries seeking to enhance their defense capabilities, though the geopolitical landscape introduces complexities that could shape the program’s reach.
The principle of reciprocity—where partners are expected to offer something in return, whether financial support, technology, or political backing—could influence the program’s appeal. Economically, the stakes are significant. Ukraine’s defense industry has become a key driver of its wartime economy, with production facilities operating at high capacity. Exports could provide a valuable revenue stream, helping to offset some of the financial pressures of the conflict. However, the long-term success of the program will depend on Ukraine’s ability to maintain production levels without compromising its own military requirements.
The Risks: Leakage, Diversion, and Russian Espionage
While the export program offers potential benefits, it also introduces notable risks. The most pressing concern is the possibility of technology leakage to Russia. Moscow has a documented history of acquiring foreign military technology through various means, including reverse-engineering captured equipment and infiltrating supply chains. Ukraine’s decision to export weapons, even under controlled conditions, creates additional avenues for Russian intelligence to obtain sensitive systems.
Zelensky’s emphasis on preventing Ukrainian technology from reaching Russian hands highlights the high stakes involved. To address this risk, Ukraine is expected to implement strict end-user monitoring requirements for buyers, though the effectiveness of such measures in practice remains uncertain. Another concern is diversion—the risk that exported weapons could be resold or transferred to third parties, including non-state actors. Ukraine’s own experiences with arms trafficking have made officials particularly aware of this danger, and the NSDC’s oversight role suggests a cautious approach to managing these risks.
Sustainability presents another challenge. Ukraine’s defense industry has expanded rapidly under wartime conditions, but maintaining this growth will require continued investment, access to critical components, and a stable workforce. If production capacity falters or domestic demand increases, the export program could face delays before gaining momentum.
What to Watch: The Next Steps for Drone Deals
Ukraine’s announcement marks the beginning of a complex and evolving process.
1. The first agreements. While no potential partners have been named, attention will focus on countries with close ties to Ukraine, such as Poland or the Baltic states. Early deals will serve as an indicator of the program’s viability and could set a precedent for future exports.
2. Production stability. Can Ukraine maintain its expanded manufacturing capacity, or will domestic demand force adjustments? Production facilities in key cities are operating near full capacity, and any disruptions—whether from attacks, supply chain issues, or other factors—could impact export plans.
3. Russian reactions. Moscow has not yet publicly responded to Ukraine’s export plans, but countermeasures are likely. These could include cyber operations targeting Ukrainian defense firms, disinformation campaigns aimed at potential buyers, or efforts to intercept or sabotage exported weapons.
4. Western engagement. The U.S. and EU have supported Ukraine’s defense industry, but their stance on arms exports remains less defined. Will they encourage partners to engage with the Drone Deals program, or could they view it as a potential competitor to their own defense sectors?
5. The restricted list. Ukraine has indicated that it will release a list of countries barred from receiving its weapons due to ties with Russia. When published, this list will clarify Kyiv’s red lines and could lead to diplomatic friction with excluded nations.
For now, Ukraine’s export initiative remains in its early stages. The Drone Deals program represents a strategic effort to convert wartime innovation into long-term economic and security advantages. However, in a conflict where every resource counts, the program’s success will depend on careful execution and adaptability.