Three Nights of Strikes Ignite Hormuz Conflict
The United States has launched three consecutive nights of military strikes against Iranian targets, sharply escalating the battle for control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has formally notified Congress of the renewed hostilities, while simultaneously proposing a 20 percent tax on all vessels transiting the strait—a policy a spokesperson for the U.N. shipping agency asserts lacks any legal basis.
Naval Bases and Broken Agreements
U.S. Central Command confirmed strikes on more than a dozen military targets, including the Bandar Abbas naval base, where unmanned sea drones were utilized. These operations follow a series of Iranian missile launches across the Gulf region, including an attack on a U.S. military base in Kuwait. While Central Command reported no U.S. personnel were injured in the Kuwaiti strike, the exchange has effectively collapsed a mid-June memorandum of understanding intended to ensure the free flow of commercial shipping.
That agreement, which included provisions for dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman and a commitment to lift naval blockades within 30 days, has now entered what the Iranian Foreign Ministry describes as a “state of crisis.”
The Toll and the Threat of War
President Trump has declared the U.S. will act as the “guardian of the strait,” proposing a 20 percent toll on cargo from every country that passes through the waterway. The administration’s plan to resume a naval blockade of Iranian ports has drawn sharp defiance from Tehran. Iranian military spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari warned that any logistical support for U.S. operations would be viewed as an act of war, threatening to spread the conflict across the region.
A spokesperson for the U.N. shipping agency says there is no legal basis for such a tax.
Limits of Air-Only Strategy
The effectiveness of the current U.S. military strategy is under scrutiny. MIT Professor Caitlin Talmadge notes that relying primarily on airpower to degrade Iranian military capabilities presents significant challenges. According to Talmadge, historical military campaigns demonstrate that bombing alone has never produced the sort of democratic regime change that the administration talked about as one of its goals in the opening days of the war, and airpower often requires combination with other tools, particularly ground forces.
Talmadge suggests the current situation may settle into a “new equilibrium”—a period of low-level, persistent conflict where neither side possesses the capacity to force a decisive conclusion. The U.S. faces constraints regarding munitions supply and the economic impact of rising oil prices, while Iran remains vulnerable to continued U.S. strikes despite its defiant rhetoric.
The War Powers Clock Resets
The formal notification sent by President Trump to Senator Chuck Grassley on July 10 serves as a requirement under the War Powers Resolution. The resolution mandates that the president notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops into hostilities and limits unilateral military action to 60 days. With the administration previously claiming that regional activities had wound down, this new notification signals a restart of the 60-day clock as hostilities intensify.
The administration has also signaled potential future actions against specific infrastructure, with President Trump referencing a site known as “Pickaxe Mountain.” David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security identifies the location as an under-construction facility intended for uranium enrichment and potential nuclear weaponization activities, including the conversion of enriched gas into metal bomb components.
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