US Leadership Emerges as Primary Geopolitical Concern for ASEAN
A latest survey from the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute reveals a growing sense of anxiety across Southeast Asia regarding the United States’ role in the region. According to the findings published on April 7, 2026, US leadership under President Donald Trump is now the top geopolitical concern for 51.9% of respondents in ASEAN countries.
The data highlights a significant shift in regional perception, driven by concerns over policy inconsistencies and the perceived lack of credibility regarding long-term US commitments. This sentiment is reflected in a decline in trust toward the United States, which dropped from 47.2% last year to 44.0% this year.
The Trust Hierarchy in Southeast Asia
While trust in the US has waned, other global powers maintain stronger standings in the region. Japan remains the most trusted major power at 65.6%, followed by the European Union at 55.9%. The United States currently ranks third.
The institute attributes Japan’s high standing to its long-standing reputation as a responsible stakeholder that respects and upholds international law. This stability contrasts sharply with the skepticism surrounding Washington, which the institute suggests is influenced by increasing US political pressure in the Middle East and Latin America.
The Shift Toward China as a Strategic Partner
The geopolitical landscape is further shifting as ASEAN members weigh their strategic preferences between the US and China. For the first time, respondents have flipped their preference for a strategic partner:
- China: Now preferred by 52.0% of respondents, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the previous year.
- United States: Preferred by 52.3% in 2025, but has since been overtaken.
Beyond strategic partnership, China is perceived as the most influential political power in Southeast Asia, cited by 40.0% of those polled, while the US follows at 29.9%.
Economic Friction and Collective Bargaining
Geopolitical anxiety is compounded by trade tensions. In April 2025, ASEAN members agreed to coordinate their efforts to increase bargaining power against US tariff hikes. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra emphasized that joining forces would make the bloc “a force to be reckoned with,” allowing member states to survive tariff pressures together.
This move toward collective bargaining followed a decision by President Trump to delay tariff enforcement for 90 days, providing a window for countries that did not retaliate to negotiate trade terms.
Key Takeaways: ASEAN Geopolitical Trends
| Metric | Current Finding (2026) | Trend/Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Top Geopolitical Concern | US Leadership (51.9%) | Driven by policy inconsistency |
| Trust in the US | 44.0% | Down from 47.2% in 2025 |
| Most Trusted Power | Japan (65.6%) | Respected for upholding international law |
| Preferred Strategic Partner | China (52.0%) | Up 4.3 percentage points from 2025 |
| Most Influential Power | China (40.0%) | US follows at 29.9% |
Looking Ahead
The current trajectory suggests a region increasingly wary of US volatility. While the US continues to engage through stability initiatives—such as the provision of aid to Thailand and Cambodia—the overarching sentiment is one of caution. As ASEAN seeks to maintain its autonomy, the bloc’s ability to leverage collective bargaining and diversify its strategic partnerships will be critical in navigating the rivalry between Washington and Beijing.