USAID Defunding Could Lead to Over 14 Million Deaths,study finds

A recent study estimates that the complete dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) by July 2025,possibly under a second Trump administration,could result in more than 14 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 8.5-19.7 million) across 133 low- and middle-income countries by 2030. The research highlights the critical role USAID plays in global health and development.

The study, acknowledged by Daniel Krugman and colleagues, and also Jayalakshmi Alagar and Ludmila Lobkowicz, modeled the consequences of a complete cessation of USAID funding. USAID provides vital assistance in areas such as healthcare, food security, economic growth, and humanitarian aid. its defunding would severely disrupt these programs, leading to increased mortality rates, especially from preventable diseases and malnutrition.

Researchers emphasize that the projected death toll represents a notable humanitarian crisis. The loss of USAID support would undermine progress made in combating infectious diseases like HIV/AIDS,tuberculosis,and malaria. It would also exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in fragile states, potentially leading to increased instability and conflict.

The study underscores the importance of sustained international aid for global health security and enduring development. A reduction or elimination of USAID funding would not only have devastating consequences for recipient countries but also pose risks to global health and security.

Publication Date: 2025/12/07 21:17:36