USMCA Review in 2026: Critical Minerals and North American Supply Chains
The upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in July 2026 is poised to center on the processing of critical minerals, reflecting a broader strategy to strengthen regional extraction, processing, and manufacturing. This initiative aims to reduce reliance on external sources and solidify strategic supply chains within North America.
Strengthening Regional Mineral Supply Chains
In December 2025, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer highlighted the potential benefits of establishing a regional market for critical minerals to Congress. The goal is to foster mining, recycling, reuse, and manufacturing through a coordinated trade policy and productive integration program US Trade Representative.
Adjustments to Rules of Origin
The USMCA review provides an opportunity to adjust rules of origin, particularly within the automotive sector. Advocacy groups, such as the BlueGreen Alliance, are pushing for stronger provisions that incentivize the use of North American minerals in vehicles, and batteries. This approach is driven by the need to mitigate vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
Global Dependence and Geopolitical Risks
Currently, a significant portion of critical minerals – over 60% of lithium, cobalt, and graphite in 2019 – is mined in Australia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and China Wikipedia. China controls more than 60% of global lithium and cobalt processing, creating geopolitical and commercial risks.
Structural Challenges in the Mining Sector
The processing of critical minerals faces several hurdles, including technical limitations, environmental concerns, and regulatory constraints. Factors like export quotas, price fluctuations, substantial capital investments, and stringent environmental standards all impact the feasibility of projects. The concentration of reserves in specific geographic locations also limits diversification, as evidenced by China’s dominance in rare earth production since the mid-1990s, impacting industries from semiconductors to clean energy.
Implications for Mexico and Nearshoring
For Mexico, the focus on critical mineral processing presents an opportunity linked to nearshoring and attracting foreign direct investment in advanced manufacturing, electromobility, and the energy sectors. However, the USMCA review will also involve discussions regarding labor law compliance, energy policy, and the use of third-party content within regional trade channels.
Bilateral Negotiations and US Priorities
Bilateral discussions between U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard began in January 2026. The United States intends to engage in firm negotiations to address bilateral and trilateral issues, including implicit tariffs, regulatory standards, and strengthening rules of origin.
Economic Security and Global Competition
The White House’s 2025 National Security Strategy identifies Africa as a key region for investment in energy and critical minerals. This initiative aims to secure supplies amidst strategic competition with China and diversify sourcing options. International Trade Administration
Critical Minerals as Geoeconomic Policy
The processing of critical minerals is not solely an industrial matter; it’s a crucial element of trade and geoeconomic policy. The decisions made during the 2026 USMCA review have the potential to reshape foreign trade flows and redefine supply chain configurations across North America.