Heightened Bushfire Risk Across Southeastern Australia This Autumn
A new seasonal outlook warns of an increased risk of bushfires across large parts of southeastern Australia this autumn, with heightened concerns for Victoria, New South Wales, and Western Australia. Authorities are urging residents in high-risk zones to prepare bushfire plans as warmer temperatures and long-term dryness contribute to elevated fire danger.
Increased Risk Factors
The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) has identified an increased risk of bushfires in southern, central, and eastern New South Wales, parts of southern Western Australia, and most of Victoria over the next three months as reported by the ABC. This elevated risk is primarily driven by “increased long-term dryness and persistent soil moisture deficits,” according to AFAC chief executive Rob Webb .
Despite recent rainfall in some areas of Victoria, including Kyabram which recorded 42.2 millimeters of rain, and flash flooding warnings issued for Healesville, Castlemaine, and Kyneton, authorities emphasize that this rainfall has not eliminated the underlying risk . A drier than average autumn is forecast, coupled with warmer than average temperatures, which will further increase fuel availability and the potential for fires to ignite and spread.
Regional Breakdown
Emergency Management Victoria Deputy Commissioner Brett Boatman stated that all of Victoria, with the exception of East Gippsland and the Mallee, will be under increased bushfire risk throughout autumn . This follows more than two years of underlying dryness, resulting in significant amounts of dead and dry vegetation across the Victorian landscape.
The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for autumn 2026 also identifies a heightened risk in New South Wales and Western Australia and on Facebook.
Prescribed Burning Programs
Although autumn typically offers opportunities for prescribed burning programs, these may be delayed in some areas due to the current underlying conditions .
Staying Informed
Residents in high-risk zones are urged to stay informed and have a bushfire plan in place. The AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook was developed by expert fire specialists, alongside climate predictions and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.