For the first time in at least 40 years, the seasonal upwelling that sustains Panama’s Gulf of Panama marine ecosystem failed to occur in 2025, according to researchers at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.
Scientists link the collapse to weakened trade winds
The Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute’s long-term records show that from January to April, strong northern trade winds have reliably driven cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface in the Gulf of Panama since at least 1985.
In 2025, however, researchers documented that this upwelling process did not happen, with weakened wind patterns likely preventing the usual surge of productivity.
The finding was published recently in the journal PNAS, where scientists suggest a major drop in wind patterns drove the unprecedented failure of this oceanographic process.
Upwelling supports fisheries and coral reef health
This seasonal upwelling plays a major role in the region’s marine life by fueling highly productive fisheries, helping shield coral reefs from heat stress, and keeping Pacific coastal waters cooler during peak vacation months.
The process is especially important during Central America’s dry season, which runs from December to April, when the Gulf of Panama typically experiences its strongest upwelling.
Researchers caution that more work is needed to identify the exact cause of the wind decline and understand what the event could mean for fisheries and coastal communities that depend on the ecosystem.
Discovery highlights need for better tropical ocean monitoring
The failure points to the rising vulnerability of tropical upwelling systems, which are enormously important for ecosystems and coastal economies but remain poorly monitored in many parts of the world.
Scientists say the findings highlight the need to improve ocean climate observation and forecasting across tropical regions to detect such changes earlier.
The result is one of the first major outcomes from the collaboration between the S/Y Eugen Seibold research vessel from the Max Planck Institute and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.
What is upwelling and why does it matter for Panama?
Upwelling is the process where wind-driven surface waters are pushed away, allowing colder, nutrient-rich water from below to rise to the surface, supporting marine productivity.
Could the upwelling failure happen again in future years?
Researchers say more work is needed to understand the cause and determine whether similar failures could occur again, but they note the event signals growing vulnerability in tropical ocean systems due to climate disruption.