winter 2025/2026: A Return to “Old Fashioned” Cold?

(METEOGIORNALE.IT) In recent years we have become accustomed to mild winters adn intermittent rains, frequently enough dominated by sub-tropical anticyclones. But according to the new seasonal analyses the next winter 2025/2026 could bring us back an “old fashioned” climate, with more intense cold, more snow and temperatures below normal in many areas of the world, including Italy. in short, we’re back to the old days.

This is stated by the data we have in our hands, collected by the main global computing centers and which have compared the current signals of the atmosphere and oceans with those of very harsh past winters. And the results are really interesting.

It all starts from the Pacific: “La Niña” returns

The Pacific Ocean frequently enough changes mood, we certainly know this by now. sometimes it warms up (el Niño), other times it cools down (La Niña), according to a cycle that usually lasts 2 years. This year, the equatorial tropical waters of the eastern Pacific are getting colder, and it is this cooling – “the Girl” – to be one of the first warning signs for a colder winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

When it activates The Girl change the position of the polar jet that immense and turbulent current of air that emerges from Canada and Greenland and which then spreads towards Europe and Asia, driving the disturbances of the entire hemisphere. The most common effect? Cold air descending from Canada towards the United States and, in turn, also towards Europe.

Actually, in the past years in which La Niña appeared, they were recorded heavy snowfall and more frequent cold spells. On the contrary, with “El Niño” the winters are warmer.

All eyes also on the QBO

But it’s not just the ocean that decides: the atmosphere also manages to make a big contribution to the progress of the seasons. let’s talk about QBO (or Quasi-biennial Oscillation or “quasi-biennial oscillation”), a phenomenon that concerns i winds in the stratosphere above the equator, approximately 20-30 km high. we could compare it to a real “breathing” of the atmosphere, with notable effects on Winter (and also

The Disturbed Polar Vortex and What It Means for Winter

The polar vortex, a large area of low pressure and cold air surrounding both the North and South Poles, is currently experiencing significant disruption. this disruption has the potential to influence weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe and Italy, throughout the upcoming winter. Understanding the polar vortex and it’s behavior is crucial for anticipating potential weather extremes.

What is the Polar Vortex?

The polar vortex isn’t a new phenomenon; it exists year-round. However, it typically strengthens during the winter months as temperatures drop. A strong, stable polar vortex keeps cold air contained within the Arctic.When the vortex weakens and becomes distorted, it can send frigid air southward, leading to severe winter weather outbreaks. This weakening frequently enough occurs due to sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events.

What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)?

Sudden Stratospheric Warming describes a rapid increase in temperature in the stratosphere over the Arctic. This warming can disrupt the polar vortex, causing it to stretch and weaken. SSW events don’t always lead to cold outbreaks in Europe and North America, but they considerably increase the likelihood. Several factors can trigger an SSW, including wave activity from the lower atmosphere propagating upwards.

Current Situation: A Disturbed Vortex

Currently, the polar vortex is showing signs of instability. Recent data indicates a significant disruption, increasing the probability of colder air masses descending into mid-latitude regions. While the exact impacts are still uncertain, meteorologists are closely monitoring the situation. The current disturbance is notable and warrants attention as we head into the core winter months.

What to expect in Italy?

it is indeed still early to talk about detailed forecasts, but the global trends suggest a busier winter than the last few. A disturbed polar vortex increases the chance of more frequent and intense cold air outbreaks, perhaps bringing periods of significant snowfall, especially to the northern and central regions of Italy. We can also anticipate a higher probability of more intense storms and precipitation events. However, it’s important to remember that these are probabilities, and the specific weather patterns will depend on the evolution of the polar vortex and other atmospheric factors.

Key Takeaways

• The polar vortex is a natural phenomenon that influences winter weather.
• A disrupted polar vortex increases the risk of cold air outbreaks.
• Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events can weaken the polar vortex.
• Italy may experience a more active winter with increased chances of cold air, snow, and storms.
• Long-range forecasts are probabilistic and subject to change.

Publication Date: 2025/11/04 05:02:37