Ozempic and Wegovy: Potential for Affordable Access as Patents Expire
Recent analysis suggests that semaglutide, the active ingredient in weight-loss medications like Wegovy and Ozempic, could be produced for as little as $3 per monthly dose, potentially expanding access to treatment for millions globally. This development comes as patents on the drug are set to expire in several key countries, paving the way for generic competition.
Obesity: A Growing Global Health Crisis
More than one billion people worldwide live with obesity, and rates are rapidly increasing in lower-income nations due to shifts in diet and lifestyle. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated semaglutide as an essential medicine in September 2023, recognizing its potential to address this growing public health challenge . However, high prices have historically limited access to the medication.
Patent Expiration and Generic Competition
Research indicates that core patents on semaglutide will expire in 10 countries in 2026, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, and Canada. Patents have not been filed in an additional 150 countries, primarily in Africa. These 160 countries represent 69% of the global population with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those living with obesity.
Potential for Lower Production Costs
The analysis, published as a pre-print, estimates that mass production of injectable semaglutide could reach $3 per monthly dose, while pill formulations could be manufactured for around $16 per month. Dr. Andrew Hill of Liverpool University’s pharmacology department stated that these lower prices “open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine.” This methodology has been previously used to accurately predict the prices of generic medications for other diseases, such as HIV, hepatitis C, and certain cancers.
WHO Recommendations and Global Access
The WHO has issued guidelines recommending GLP-1-type medications as long-term treatments for obesity . However, the organization cautions that even with increased production, these medications are projected to reach fewer than 10% of those who could benefit by 2030. The WHO has called on member states to ensure obesity management is universally available, affordable, and sustainable.
NAION Risk and Safety Alert
The WHO has also issued a safety alert regarding a potential risk of non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION) associated with the use of semaglutide medications—Ozempic®, Rybelsus®, and Wegovy® . The European Medicines Agency (EMA) recommends updating product information to include NAION as a very rare side effect. Patients experiencing sudden vision loss or rapidly worsening eyesight while on semaglutide should immediately consult their doctor, and treatment should be stopped if NAION is confirmed.
Challenges Remain
Researchers emphasize that lower treatment costs alone will not solve the obesity crisis. Addressing underlying structural drivers, such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanization, and commercial food environments, is crucial. Coordinated policies and procurement planning will be necessary to maximize the benefits of increased access.
Expert Perspectives
Dr. Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa’s Desmond Tutu Health Foundation, highlighted the potential significance of this development for South Africa and other low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where cost has been a major barrier to access. Analysis suggests that approximately 27% of adults worldwide could benefit from drugs like semaglutide, with the majority residing in LMICs.
Looking Ahead
The potential for affordable semaglutide represents a significant step towards addressing the global obesity epidemic. However, successful implementation will require collaborative efforts from governments, health systems, and pharmaceutical companies to ensure equitable access and responsible integration of these medications into comprehensive obesity and diabetes care.