Data this week showed that the American economy is growing at its fastest pace in two years – and yet polling shows the mood on Main Street is grim.
It’s almost hard to believe we’re talking about the same economy. But the metrics offer another reminder that two seemingly diverging trends can concurrently be true. An economy that’s growing rapidly doesn’t necessarily mean everyone is feeling it.
Yes, gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, heated up this summer to a sizzling annualized pace of 4.3%, far outpacing economists’ expectations.
but the booming GDP did not translate to a hiring boom, nor was it accompanied by a return to normal inflation.
“GDP is an abstract concept. But people know jobs. They know they can’t find a job if they lose theirs,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN in a phone interview on Tuesday. “And they know they are paying more for coffee, beef, electricity, child care and just about everything else.”
GDP is a kind of report card for the economy. But like any report card,it may not paint a full picture of whatMany lower- and middle-income Americans,on the other hand,are struggling to stay afloat. Some of them are cutting back on spending and falling behind on bills.
“Retirees and the top 10% continue to drive the economy. It’s still vrey much a K-shaped economy,” said Mike reid,senior US economist at RBC Capital markets.
While people may not feel high GDP, they do feel high prices.
Inflation hasn’t gone through the roof this year, as some feared it would because of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
But inflation also hasn’t improved much since Trump took office in january, when prices were rising at a 3% annual rate compared to November’s 2.7% rate (according to government data that carries a lot of fine print because of shutdown-related distortions). Still, it’s higher than the 1.7% average annual inflation rate Americans experienced in the decade preceding the onset of the pandemic,according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Inflation remains stubbornly high, hitting Americans’ wallets hard
Natural gas, the moast common way to heat homes in America, is 9% more expensive.
Ground beef surged 15% year-over-year in November, the biggest increase since 2020. And consumers are shelling out a lot more for car repair (10%) and coffee (19%), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It’s true that paychecks are also up – but frequently enough not by enough to keep up with the cost of living.
Consider that bank of america deposit data shows that paychecks beat prices in November only for high-income households. Middle-income household wage growth was just 2.3%,while lower-income households saw a decline of 0.7%.