EU Climate Target: A deal Reached, But Divisions Remain
Getting the European Commission’s 2040 climate target over the line this week was not an easy task for EU habitat ministers.
It took 18 hours of talks in Brussels for member states to support, by qualified majority, the Commission’s proposal to cut carbon emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels.
The deal was slightly watered-down, outlining that member states will be able to outsource up to 5% of their carbon emissions reduction efforts to non-EU countries through a system of international credits. However, four central and eastern European member states – Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Slovakia – did not sign up to the text.
Last Tuesday morning,polish environment minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska stated on Polish radio that Poland would vote against the 90% target,deeming it “too enterprising” for countries like theirs. The Polish goverment seeks more time and financial support for the transition.
Her deputy climate minister, Krzysztof bolesta, echoed this sentiment in Brussels, stating, “We don’t want to destroy the economy. We don’t want to destroy the climate. We want to save both at the same time.” Czechia, hungary and Slovakia share similar concerns, fearing the costs of a 90% reduction by 2040 could damage industrial competitiveness. The Czech environment minister labelled the target “unrealistic,” citing potential impacts on key industries like chemical and materials production.
Despite opposition, Poland’s pro-EU coalition government has been increasing the share of renewables in its energy mix since late 2023, continuing a trend of reducing coal’s dominance.A decade ago, coal generated about 80% of Poland’s electricity; today, that share has fallen to just over 50%. Renewables have increased from around 15% in 2015 to 34% in 2024 (according to Forum Energii). Investment in photovoltaic heating and offshore wind farms is also booming, with Orlen, Poland’s largest energy company, committing €70bn to renewables and decarbonisation by 2035.
So, why the continued opposition? A key reason lies in legacy energy infrastructure. Polish and other central/eastern European cities rely on centralised heating systems built during the Communist era to heat large housing blocks and power factories, systems heavily dependent on coal.
“You cannot just easily switch from a big heat power plant somewhere in a big city like Warsaw to a big heat pump, or even a network of heat pumps,” explains Polish energy analyst Wojciech Jakobik. “You would need to totally re-project the network. And we have some estimations from polish industry that it would take billions.”
Heating is consistently available in Warsaw apartments from mid-October to late March,regulated by radiators but sourced from a central coal-dependent system.The system ensures warmth during harsh winters when temperatures plummet.
Czech Republic’s New Government Signals Shift Away from EU Green Policies
A new coalition government in the Czech Republic, led by Andrej Babiš, is poised to take office in the coming weeks, signaling a potential shift away from the European Union’s ambitious climate goals. The coalition, formed with two right-wing parties including the explicitly pro-car “Motorists for Themselves” party, presents a challenge to the EU’s Green Deal and broader climate agenda.
The Motorists party, as their name suggests, actively opposes the EU’s planned ban on the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 and expresses skepticism towards electric vehicles and green policies generally. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-new-govt-likely-slow-down-green-transition-2023-11-02/
The coalition’s program outlines a commitment to developing renewable energy sources, but also proposes maintaining coal-fired power plants “until sufficient additional stable energy sources are available.” It advocates for a “realistic and stable energy mix” incorporating nuclear,renewables,coal,and gas. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-new-govt-likely-slow-down-green-transition-2023-11-02/
Nuclear energy enjoys broad support across the Czech political spectrum, with all major parties, excluding the green party, favoring expansion of the country’s nuclear capacity.
This stance reflects a wider skepticism towards stringent climate targets within Czech politics. “Czech politicians are generally more sceptical towards climate targets than other European countries,” notes Filip Nerad, communications director and foreign policy analyst at GLOBESEC, a think tank. He adds that a common concern is that aggressive climate policies will lead to increased energy costs. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-new-govt-likely-slow-down-green-transition-2023-11-02/
Regional Opposition to EU Climate Policies
The Czech Republic is not alone in its reservations. Slovakia’s government has voiced concerns that the EU’s proposed 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 would harm European industry, particularly given current high energy prices. Hungary has similarly argued the target would hinder industrial competitiveness. https://www.euractiv.com/en/energy-environment/czech-republic-likely-to-slow-down-green-transition-under-babis-return-1378811/
During recent climate discussions, the Czech Republic joined Poland, Italy, and Romania in successfully lobbying for a one-year postponement of the EU Emissions Trading System for buildings and road transport (ETS2) until 2028. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/czech-republic-joins-push-delay-eu-buildings-transport-carbon-market-2023-11-08/
ETS2 aims to reduce emissions by requiring companies to purchase allowances for each ton of CO2 emitted, with a declining cap on allowances over time. However, businesses in Poland express concerns that the financial burden of transitioning to cleaner energy will outweigh the support offered through ETS2. The incoming czech coalition has explicitly stated its opposition to implementing ETS2.
Geopolitical Considerations
Poland’s opposition to the 90% emissions reduction target is also linked to increased defense spending following russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The production of military equipment and ammunition relies heavily on fossil fuels. according to Piotr Jakobik, a Polish energy expert, “It is great to have a clean planet and to work on it, but we lack assessment when it comes to the economic consequences, especially when we compete with the US, with China, and when we have a military crisis 500 kilometres from Warsaw.”