Prediction Market Platforms See Surge in World Cup Trading Volumes
Prediction market platforms experienced a significant increase in trading activity during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with Kalshi reporting more than $31 billion in notional volume in June, a more than 70% rise from May’s $17.9 billion, according to data from Dune Analytics. Polymarket also saw a surge, with its international event contract exchange hitting more than $10.8 billion in June, reversing a decline in April and May, while its U.S. platform recorded north of $3.5 billion in notional volume, up from $1.77 billion in May.
Kalshi and Polymarket Dominate High-Volume Trading
Kalshi’s daily trading volume exceeded $1 billion since the World Cup began on June 11, with open interest above $1 billion. Polymarket’s open interest reached just under $400 million, reflecting sustained engagement. The platforms leveraged the tournament to attract users, with Polymarket launching a competition to reward up to $2 million to whoever can craft a perfect World Cup knockout round bracket and Kalshi promoting its mobile app with the tagline “Trade the World Cup.”
New Platform Rothera Gains Traction
Rothera, a joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, debuted in June and recorded $2 billion in notional trading volume, accounting for 7% of U.S. prediction market volume, according to Bank of America. The platform’s growth followed Robinhood’s decision to route certain World Cup contracts to the platform, signaling interest in event-based trading.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Market Maturity
The World Cup served as a stress test for prediction markets, with Asaf Meir, CEO at Solidus Labs—a market integrity company that has a partnership with Kalshi—highlighting concerns about regulatory preparedness. “The World Cup is a key moment for platforms as both regulators and institutions are eying how they perform,” Meir said. He emphasized the need for transparency and stability in high-volume environments, noting that the event’s scale could determine the industry’s long-term credibility.
U.S. Team Odds and Betting Activity
Despite the surge in trading, the U.S. team faced long odds of winning the tournament, with a 4.3% chance on Kalshi and 3% on Polymarket. Over $64 million was traded on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket on whether the U.S. will win the tournament.
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