NC State’s March Madness Journey: A Deep Dive into the 2026 Tournament

March Madness bracket season is here and while upsets are a hallmark of the NCAA Tournament, recent history suggests double-digit seeds can create deep runs. Last year, five double-digit seeds won at least one game, including McNeese State reaching the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed. Their former head coach, Will Wade, now leads North Carolina State, aiming to replicate that success.

Wade’s Return to the Big Dance

Will Wade secured an NCAA Tournament berth for NC State in his first season, following a one-year absence for the program and a coaching change. The Wolfpack received an No. 11 seed and will face Texas in a First Four matchup in Dayton, Ohio. This marks Wade’s eighth NCAA Tournament appearance in his 12 seasons as a head coach. He replaced Kevin Keatts, who previously led NC State to a remarkable Final Four run in 2024 after winning the ACC Tournament.

A Rocky Road to the Tournament

Despite entering the season with high expectations, NC State faced a challenging stretch towards the end of the regular season, losing six of their final seven games. A home loss to Stanford on Senior Day resulted in a 4-5 conference record. However, the team rallied, securing a crucial 20th win in the ACC Tournament against Pittsburgh, led by senior guard Quadir Copeland. This victory was essential to avoid being relegated to the First Four round.

SportsLine’s Projection Model: Upset Potential

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, NC State isn’t the only team poised for an upset. The model has a strong track record, correctly predicting upsets in past tournaments, including wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina and No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech two years ago, and calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round last year.

Key Upset Picks from the Model

• No. 11 VCU Upsets No. 6 North Carolina: The model identifies VCU as a potential upsetter against a North Carolina team weakened by injuries. VCU has won 16 of its last 17 games, including the Atlantic 10 final.
• No. 5 Vanderbilt Defeats No. 4 Nebraska: The model projects Vanderbilt to advance to the Sweet 16 by defeating Nebraska. Vanderbilt recently appeared in the SEC Championship Game, while Nebraska has struggled in its last 12 games after a 20-0 start.

Looking Ahead

NC State’s journey begins with a First Four matchup against Texas. The SportsLine Projection Model’s success in identifying potential upsets suggests that the 2026 NCAA Tournament will be full of surprises. As teams battle for championship glory, the model’s insights will be crucial for bracket predictions and identifying potential Cinderella stories.