Louisville Area Braces for Continued Rainfall and Potential Flooding

Louisville, Kentucky, and surrounding areas are preparing for several days of continued rainfall, raising concerns about potential flooding. A stationary front is bringing precipitation to Southern Indiana and north-central Kentucky, with a cold front expected to move through the region on March 7th.

Weather Forecast: March 4 – March 8

The National Weather Service (NWS) Louisville forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms on March 4th, with a high near 70 degrees. The chance of precipitation is 50%, with potential for higher amounts in thunderstorms. Showers are likely to continue overnight, with a 70% chance of precipitation and possible thunderstorms before 10 p.m.

March 5th is expected to bring continued showers and a possible thunderstorm, with a high near 71 degrees and an 80% chance of precipitation. The pattern continues overnight with a 70% chance of showers, and thunderstorms.

A 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for March 6th, with mostly sunny conditions and a high near 78 degrees. The chance of precipitation increases again on March 7th, with a 100% chance of showers and a high near 73 degrees. Conditions are expected to improve by March 8th, with a 20% chance of showers before 1 p.m. And partly sunny skies.

Flooding Concerns and River Levels

The prolonged rainfall raises concerns about ground saturation and potential river flooding. As the ground becomes saturated, more rainfall will flow into streams and rivers, increasing the risk of flooding. The NWS Louisville will monitor ground saturation levels to assess these risks.

As of March 5, 2026, the Ohio River at McAlpine Upper was at 106.4 feet, with a flood stage of 52 feet. NOAA reports that at 52 feet, flooding begins in Jeffersonville, Indiana, and Shelby Street in Louisville is closed at the floodgate. The Ohio River at McAlpine Lower was at 88.5 feet. NOAA reports that at this level, the flood will reach the top of the floodwall, with a large part of downtown Louisville flooding and portions of I-64 and I-65 potentially impacted.

The National Weather Service forecasts increasing river flows across the Ohio River basin, with significant increases expected at several points through March 7th.

Regional Rainfall Totals

The metro area could see 1-3 inches of rainfall through March 10th. The NWS notes that rainfall amounts may vary significantly across the region, with some areas receiving little to no rain while others experience heavier downpours.

Governor Beshear Urges Weather Alertness

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has reminded residents to “remain weather-alert” as the storms move through the area.