Middle East Conflict Threatens Global Fertiliser Supplies Ahead of Planting Season

The war in the Middle East has disrupted critical shipping routes, triggering a surge in global fertiliser prices and raising alarms about food security as the spring planting season approaches. Farmers worldwide are facing uncertainty over access to essential nutrients, with India— the world’s second-largest fertiliser user after China— particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on Gulf imports passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping Disruptions Strain India’s Fertiliser Supply Chain

India imports approximately 30 per cent of its fertilisers, with a significant portion sourced from the Gulf region and transported via the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to shipping delays and route diversions, putting pressure on supply chains. According to government data cited in mid-March 2026, India held urea stocks of about 6.2 million tonnes, though farmers express concern about how long these reserves will last if the conflict persists.

Manpreet Singh Grewal, president of a farmers’ collective linked to Punjab Agricultural University, noted that even as current supplies are adequate for the upcoming sowing season— which begins in June-July in key grain-producing states like Punjab and Haryana— there is anxiety about future availability. “We don’t know how long the stock will last if the war stretches any further,” he said.

Government Asserts Adequate Preparedness Despite Risks

Indian authorities have sought to reassure farmers and markets, stating that domestic production increases and strategic global procurement have helped insulate the country from supply shocks. A government spokesperson confirmed that India’s fertiliser stock stood at 18.4 million tonnes in mid-April 2026, up from 16 million tonnes during the same period the previous year.

The Department of Fertilisers emphasized that a combination of expanded domestic urea, DAP (Diammonium phosphate), and NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) production, along with diversified sourcing, has strengthened resilience. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has affirmed that adequate arrangements are in place to protect farmers from adverse impacts.

Global Ripple Effects: Beyond India’s Borders

The fertiliser squeeze is not confined to India. Reports indicate that rising prices and supply constraints are already affecting farmers in the United States and Europe, where the main planting season is underway. Analysts warn that the impact is expected to reach Asian markets in the coming months, potentially influencing planting decisions and crop yields.

Nitrogen-based fertilisers like urea are vital for staple crops such as rice and wheat, which cannot absorb sufficient nitrogen directly from the air. India uses nearly 40 million tonnes of urea annually, much of it subsidised, making consistent supply crucial for maintaining agricultural output and food security.

Key Takeaways

• The Middle East conflict has disrupted fertiliser shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting global supply chains.
• India, as the world’s second-largest fertiliser user, relies heavily on Gulf imports and faces potential shortages if the war continues.
• Government data shows India’s fertiliser stocks increased year-on-year to 18.4 million tonnes by April 2026, with authorities citing enhanced domestic production and strategic procurement.
• Farmers in key agricultural states like Punjab and Haryana report adequate supplies for the imminent sowing season but remain wary of prolonged disruptions.
• Urea, essential for rice and wheat cultivation, accounts for nearly 40 million tonnes of annual use in India, underscoring the stakes of supply stability.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the Strait of Hormuz critical for India’s fertiliser supply?

The Strait of Hormuz is a major maritime chokepoint through which a significant portion of India’s fertiliser imports— particularly from Gulf countries— pass. Disruptions to shipping in this zone directly affect the timing and cost of deliveries.

Is India producing enough fertiliser domestically to offset import risks?

India has expanded domestic production of urea, DAP, and NPK fertilisers in recent years. But, it still imports about 30 per cent of its total fertiliser needs, making it partially dependent on international supply chains despite efforts to boost self-reliance.

What crops are most at risk if fertiliser supplies decline?

Crops that require high nitrogen inputs— such as rice, wheat, and maize— are most vulnerable. These staples cannot access sufficient nitrogen from the atmosphere and rely heavily on synthetic fertilisers like urea for optimal growth, and yield.

As the global community monitors the evolving situation in the Middle East, the resilience of agricultural supply chains remains a pressing concern. For now, Indian farmers proceed with cautious optimism, balancing government assurances against the unpredictability of geopolitical conflict.