European Union’s Russian LNG Imports Hit Three-Year High Amid Energy Crisis
The European Union is facing a stark contradiction in its energy policy. Despite a strategic commitment to decouple from Russian energy, imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached their highest levels since early 2022 during the first quarter of this year. This surge reveals a precarious balancing act as Brussels attempts to maintain energy security while navigating geopolitical instability in the Middle East.
- EU imports of Russian LNG rose 16% year-on-year in Q1, totaling 6.9 billion cubic meters.
- Russia remains the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier, holding roughly 14% of the market.
- The surge is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy.
- Reliance on U.S. LNG has tripled since 2021, with projections suggesting it could reach 80% of imports by 2028.
The Return of Russian Gas
While pipeline shipments from Russia have largely ceased following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the sea-borne LNG route remains active. According to a report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the EU imported 6.9 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in the first three months of the year. This represents a 16% increase compared to the same period last year.
The trend isn’t slowing down. The IEEFA informed AFP that imports accelerated in April, climbing 17% year-over-year. This reliance is not evenly distributed across the bloc; Belgium, France and Spain continue to be the primary purchasers of Russian LNG transported via sea tankers. Russia has maintained its position as the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier, accounting for approximately 14% of the total market.
Geopolitical Pressures: The Hormuz Factor
The uptick in Russian imports isn’t a result of policy reversal, but rather a reaction to desperation. European governments are currently scrambling to secure supplies due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is vital to global energy stability, as normally one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows through it.
With the Hormuz route compromised, the EU has been forced to look back toward Russian LNG to prevent energy shortages, even as Brussels maintains its official goal to end all imports of Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027.
The American Pivot and Its Costs
To replace the void left by Russian pipeline gas, the EU shifted its dependency toward the United States. This transition has been aggressive: American LNG imports more than tripled between 2021 and 2025. In the first quarter of this year alone, imports from the U.S. Jumped by 27%.
Analysts project that the U.S. Will become the EU’s largest gas supplier this year. By 2028, American LNG could account for 80% of all EU LNG imports. However, this security comes at a premium, as U.S. Gas remains the most expensive option for European buyers.
A Failed Diversification Strategy?
The shift from pipelines to LNG was intended to provide the EU with both security of supply and a diversified portfolio of partners. However, current events suggest otherwise.
“Europe’s shift from pipeline gas to LNG was meant to provide security of supply and diversification,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, the IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Europe. “Yet disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and an overreliance on U.S. LNG show that Europe’s plan has failed on both counts.”
Looking Ahead: The 2027 Deadline
The EU remains committed to a total exit from Russian energy by the end of 2027. However, the recent spike in LNG imports and the heavy reliance on a single alternative supplier—the United States—highlight the volatility of the current energy landscape. As the bloc approaches its deadline, the challenge will be finding a way to ensure energy stability without trading one dependency for another.