ASEAN: Divided We Stand? The Bloc’s Struggle with Regional Security
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), founded in 1967 with the noble aim of promoting peace and economic growth, faces a significant challenge: internal divisions that threaten its effectiveness in addressing pressing regional security concerns. This is particularly evident in its responses to the Myanmar crisis, the ongoing South China Sea disputes, and the broader geopolitical tensions between China and the United States.
A House Divided on Myanmar
The military coup in Myanmar in February 2021 exposed the deep cracks within ASEAN. While founding members like Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines condemned the junta’s actions and called for a return to democracy, newer members like Thailand, Cambodia, and Laos adopted a more cautious stance, viewing the coup as an internal affair. This lack of consensus was painfully clear when only six ASEAN members supported a UN General Assembly resolution advocating for democracy in Myanmar.
ASEAN’s attempts to resolve the crisis through a Five-Point Consensus in April 2021 have largely fallen flat. The junta has ignored the agreement, and ASEAN’s non-binding diplomatic approach has proven ineffective in enforcing compliance. The rotating ASEAN chairmanship, which prioritizes quiet diplomacy and excludes Myanmar from high-level meetings, has also yielded minimal progress.
South China Sea: Navigating a Minefield of Disagreements
ASEAN’s divisions extend beyond Myanmar to the highly contested waters of the South China Sea. While Vietnam and the Philippines, directly affected by China’s aggressive actions, push for a binding Code of Conduct, other members with close ties to Beijing, such as Cambodia and Laos, remain hesitant. This lack of unity allows China to exploit the rifts and hampers ASEAN’s ability to present a strong, unified front. Despite years of negotiations, the Code of Conduct remains non-binding, and its future remains uncertain.
A Diplomatic Approach with Limitations
ASEAN’s diplomatic approach, while prioritizing consensus and dialogue, leaves it ill-equipped to deal with pressing security threats. Its non-binding agreements lack enforcement mechanisms, and the rotating chairmanship system often fails to provide the sustained leadership needed to tackle complex issues. Malaysia’s upcoming chairmanship in 2025, with its focus on economic priorities, suggests a continued preference for engagement over confrontation, leaving many to wonder if ASEAN can effectively address the growing security challenges in the region.
What’s Next for ASEAN?
The future of ASEAN’s role in regional security hangs in the balance. Can the bloc overcome its internal divisions and develop a more robust approach to security challenges? Or will its reliance on consensus and non-binding agreements leave it increasingly marginalized in a volatile geopolitical landscape?