Australia Faces Flooding and Drought Relief as March Tracks as One of Wettest on Record
A surge of tropical moisture is bringing both challenges and hope to Australia, with potential flooding in the outback and much-needed drought relief for southern farmers. Despite a generally dry autumn forecast, March 2026 is on track to be one of the wettest on record, continuing the remarkable recovery of inland Australia’s waterways.
Torrential Rainfall Across Northern and Central Australia
The past week has seen torrential rain and major flooding in Queensland and the Northern Territory, with continued heavy rainfall along the Northern Territory-Kimberley border. The current system is expected to deliver 50 to 100 millimeters of rain across the western half of the Northern Territory and adjacent parts of Western Australia over the next 48 hours, with isolated totals potentially reaching 200mm MSN.
This rainfall will then extend into South Australia, with 30 to 60mm expected north of Roxby Downs, and localized areas potentially receiving up to 100mm. For northern South Australia, one of the driest regions of the country, this represents a significant portion of its average annual rainfall, which typically ranges from 150 to 200mm.
Coober Pedy, which averages just 12mm of rain in March, could see over 66mm from this event, potentially making March the wettest in nearly four decades.
Drought Relief for Southern Farmers
While the weekend is expected to be relatively uneventful for southeastern states, with dry conditions and near-average temperatures, the tropical air mass will reach southern Australia on Monday. This, combined with a passing trough, will bring patchy rain across agricultural areas of South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales.
Early forecasts suggest light rain averaging 1 to 10mm across southern South Australia and southwest Victoria, with moderate totals of up to 20mm possible further east. The exact location of the heaviest falls remains uncertain due to the narrow band of rainfall.
Lake Eyre Rising and Flood Concerns
The recent rainfall has significantly boosted water levels in Kati Thanda-Lake Eyre, Australia’s largest lake. Water depth at Belt Bay, the deepest section, was reported at 1.9 meters and rising earlier this week. While the 2025 peak was near 2.1 to 2.2 meters, comparable to levels seen in 2010, this year’s flooding differs as most water is arriving from local tributaries rather than flows from Queensland’s Channel Country.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued flood watches for over two dozen inland catchments, warning of prolonged overland flooding and potential isolation of communities and homesteads, with many outback roads already closed due to previous flooding. Flood warnings are also current for numerous rivers in Queensland.
Long-Term Outlook and El Niño
Despite the wet start to autumn in southern states, long-range forecasts still favor below-average rainfall for the remainder of 2026. The expected development of El Niño conditions makes any rainfall in the coming weeks and months even more critical, as significant rainfall deficits could accumulate through winter and spring.
Past Drought Impacts
The northern Murray-Darling Basin has faced significant challenges from decades of water overextraction and environmental degradation, disrupting natural boom-bust cycles. During the 2019 drought, water was delivered to communities like Louth, Tilpa, Wilcannia, Menindee, and Collarenebri due to sedimentation and blue-green algae blooms rendering local water sources unsafe Australian Geographic. From 2018 to 2023, residents in Walgett relied on bore water with sodium levels 15 times the recommended limit Australian Geographic.