Teh federal Bureau of Labor Statistics regularly publishes a suite of reports and datasets that businesses, journalists, government agencies and the public use to understand the health of the U.S. economy. The monthly Employment Situation – sometimes called the jobs report – is one of the most widely covered.
Specifically, reporters widely cover the preliminary estimates of job gains or losses across various sectors. But these numbers are subject to revision. here’s what journalists should know about why the BLS revises its job numbers, and how those revisions work.
Why does the BLS revise its job numbers?
Table of Contents
The initial estimates in the Employment Situation report are based on two main surveys:
The Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey: This survey collects data from about 144,000 businesses and government agencies, representing about 600,000 individual worksites.It measures employment, hours, and earnings data.
The Current Population Survey (CPS): This is a household survey that interviews about 60,000 households. It provides data on the labor force, including unemployment rates.
The initial estimates are based on incomplete data. As more data become available – including responses from businesses that didn’t initially respond to the CES survey, and updated administrative data from other government sources – the BLS refines its estimates.”The first release is based on the most quickly available data,” explains BLS economist Christopher Kurz. “As more information comes in, we update the estimates to make them more accurate.”
When and how are the revisions made?
The BLS releases revisions on a regular schedule:
Preliminary estimates: Released on the first Friday of each month.
first revision: Released the following month, along with the next month’s preliminary estimates. This revision incorporates more complete CES data and updated CPS data. Annual revision: Released each Febuary, this is the most comprehensive revision. It incorporates updated population controls,benchmark data from unemployment insurance administrative records,and other data sources. This revision covers the entire previous calendar year.
The size of the revisions can vary. The first revision typically results in changes of a few thousand jobs, while the annual revision can be much larger, sometimes exceeding 100,000 jobs.
What do the revisions mean for journalists?
Avoid overreacting to the initial release: The first estimate is just that – an estimate. Revisions are common,and the initial numbers may not accurately reflect the true state of the labor market.
Focus on the trend: Look at the trend over several months, rather than focusing on a single month’s data. This will give you a more accurate picture of the labor market.
Understand the limitations of the data: the BLS data are subject to sampling error and other sources of error. Be sure to acknowledge these limitations in your reporting.
Consider the annual revision: The annual revision is the most accurate estimate of employment. It’s important to consider this revision when reporting on long-term trends.
Resources for journalists
BLS website: https://www.bls.gov/
employment Situation summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
CES methodology: https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/documentation.htm
CPS methodology: https://www.bls.gov/cps/methodology.htm
BLS Handbook of Methods:
BLS Jobs Data: Understanding the Annual Benchmark Revision
Each March,the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases a significant update to its employment data: the annual benchmark revision. This revision incorporates comprehensive information from state unemployment insurance tax records, providing a more accurate picture of the previous year’s job market than the monthly estimates. Understanding this process is crucial for anyone analyzing employment trends.
What is the Benchmark Revision?
The BLS monthly Current Employment statistics (CES) survey is a sample-based estimate of employment, hours, and earnings. While highly reliable, it’s subject to sampling error and seasonal adjustments. The annual benchmark revision corrects these estimates by using actual employment data from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records – a complete count of employment covered by state UI laws. essentially, it’s a “true-up” of the monthly estimates against hard data. The BLS details this process on its website.
Why is the Revision Important?
The benchmark revision is important for several reasons:
Increased Accuracy: It provides a more accurate and complete picture of employment levels.
Trend Analysis: It allows for a more reliable assessment of long-term employment trends. Monthly data is revised, possibly altering the perceived trajectory of job growth or decline.
Data Consistency: It ensures consistency across different data series produced by the BLS.
informed Decision-Making: Accurate employment data is vital for policymakers, businesses, and investors.
Examining Recent and Projected Revisions (2023-2025)
the BLS provides visualizations of these revisions. The following chart, originally from the BLS, illustrates revisions between 2023 and projected revisions through 2025: