Brexit Five Years On: A Story of Stagnation

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Every Christmas, people in Britain feel a strange political nostalgia. They remember Theresa May‘s nail-biting votes in 2018, Boris Johnson’s landslide victory in 2019, and that 1,246-page trade agreement published on “Boxing Day” 2020, just before the transition period ended.

It’s been five years since that agreement and almost ten since the UK voted to leave the European Union. The question is inevitable: How is Brexit going? The short answer: badly. The long answer is a story of chronic stagnation, missed opportunities, and an economic reality that hasn’t matched either the predictions of immediate disaster or the promises of a prosperous future.

The “Doppelgänger” verdict: An 8% poorer United Kingdom

Before the 2016 referendum, economists warned of a sudden recession.When that didn’t happen immediately, Brexit supporters claimed “Project Fear” was wrong. But the damage wasn’t a heart attack; it’s been a slow, degenerative disease.

Two recent studies have quantified this decline using the “doppelgänger” method.