The European Comission This Monday, the growth forecast for the Spanish economy for 2023 was improved by three tenths. In a somewhat unusual exercise, because it comes a few months later than usual and because it does not cover the entire EU, but only the six richest members, Community technicians predict that our country will close the year with a GDP increase of 2.2%, three tenths above the 1.9% predicted in spring. In exchange, it reduces its forecast for 2024 by one tenth, from 2% to 1.9%.
Spain It will be, by far, the economy that grows the most and best in the next two years, at least among the large ones. Brussels still contemplates a recession of 0.4% for Germany in 2023, does not believe that France and Italy will go beyond a 1% improvement and even the Netherlands would remain at 0.5%. And the same thing happens in 2024, when it estimates still very little growth, between 0.8 and 1.2% for our neighbors. And that, inevitably, has an impact on everyone’s performance.
The revised numbers are completely in line with those of other international organizations, with the Funcas panel or those of the Government itself for 2023 (not 2024, for when it still expects a 2.4, half a point above). The OECD expects a 2.1 for this course, the Bank of Spain also expects 2.3% and the average of the Funcas panel is 2.1%.
After confirming a good start to the year, the report on our country predicts that “economic expansion will be more moderate in the second half of 2023 due to the fading momentum of the tourism sector, weaker economic activity in the main trading partners, the impact of tighter financial conditions on aggregate demand and weaker labor market dynamics.”
The good news should come from inflation. In this statistical exercise, the European Commission will only analyze GDP and prices. And after the very tough year 2022, where an EU average of 9.2% was recorded, it is estimated that it will drop to 6.5% in 2023 and the relaxation will continue up to 3.2% in 2024, much more controlled figures. Once again, our country stands out for good in this section, with the lowest inflation among the large economies, with 3.6% this year, which is supposed to be between one and three points less than all the others. For next year, however, the differences would disappear and all would be around 3%, always according to the Commission’s models.