The Calgary Flames enter the 2024-25 NHL season in a period of transition, with betting markets and league analysts projecting the team to finish outside of the Western Conference playoff picture. Following a significant roster overhaul that saw the departures of core veterans like Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, and Jacob Markstrom, the organization is pivoting toward a long-term rebuild under general manager Craig Conroy. While early-season performance metrics suggest the team may remain more competitive than initial bottom-tier projections, current consensus indicates they are unlikely to secure a postseason berth.
Projected Standings and Playoff Outlook
Most major sportsbooks, including DraftKings and BetMGM, have set the Flames’ season point totals in the mid-70s range, well below the threshold required to qualify for the playoffs in the Pacific Division. According to The Athletic’s annual projection models, which utilize historical team performance and roster depth, Calgary ranks in the bottom third of the league.
The team’s primary challenge lies in bridging the gap between its veteran core—anchored by Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman, and Rasmus Andersson—and a developing group of younger players like Connor Zary and Matt Coronato. Without the elite goaltending stability previously provided by Markstrom, the Flames are expected to rely on a committee approach in net, which analysts view as a potential volatility point throughout an 82-game schedule.
Draft Lottery Odds and Asset Management
Because the Flames are expected to finish near the bottom of the league standings, they are positioned to hold high lottery odds for the 2025 NHL Entry Draft. Under the current NHL Draft Lottery rules, the team with the lowest point total has the highest statistical probability of securing the first overall pick.
However, the "lottery" element introduces significant uncertainty. Even a bottom-five finish does not guarantee a top-three selection. Historically, teams in the Flames’ position often fall back in the draft order due to the weighted nature of the lottery, a scenario that would result in a mid-to-late top-10 selection rather than the first overall pick. Management has signaled that accumulating high-end draft capital is a priority, and failing to secure a top-three spot would represent a missed opportunity to accelerate the current rebuild.
Key Factors Influencing the 2024-25 Season
The trajectory of the Flames’ season will be defined by three primary variables:
- Goaltending Performance: The tandem of Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar is tasked with proving they can handle a full-time starter workload. Wolf, a two-time AHL Goaltender of the Year, is entering his first full season as a primary NHL option.
- Trade Deadline Strategy: As the March 2025 trade deadline approaches, the Flames will likely look to move remaining pending unrestricted free agents to acquire further draft picks and prospects.
- Youth Development: The progression of prospects like Zary and the integration of new defensive acquisitions will determine if the team can maintain a competitive identity despite a lack of star-level depth.
Summary of Expectations
The Calgary Flames are currently viewed by the broader hockey community as a team in the early stages of a strategic reset. While the coaching staff, led by Ryan Huska, has emphasized a "hard-to-play-against" identity, the talent gap relative to divisional rivals like the Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks remains substantial. The most probable outcome for the 2024-25 season is a non-playoff finish, leading to a high-value pick in the 2025 NHL Draft, provided the front office continues to prioritize long-term asset accumulation over short-term roster patches.
Keep reading