India and Pakistan’s Water Politics Is Starting to Boil

CHENAB VALLEY, Jammu and Kashmir—Life along the Chenab River is undergoing a dramatic transformation as India pursues an ambitious hydropower expansion, raising concerns about environmental damage, displacement, and escalating tensions with Pakistan. The projects, while aimed at bolstering India’s energy security, are reshaping the lives of communities and redefining the geopolitics of water sharing in a region already fraught with conflict.

A Riverine Way of Life Under Threat

Shama Begum, a resident of Dungduro village in Jammu and Kashmir, embodies the changing fortunes of those reliant on the Chenab River. Growing up in Sewarbatti, her family’s existence revolved around the river’s springs, cattle, and streams. “I spent summers out in the fields, growing beans, rice, maize, fruit,” she recalls. “We used to rest under the trees. But now, we’ve lost our land and cattle.” [1]

The Chenab Valley, encompassing the Kishtwar, Doda, and Ramban districts of Jammu and Kashmir, is characterized by its dense forests and steep valleys. [2] But, it is now at the center of India’s hydropower ambitions. Seven projects are planned, with four already underway, promising 5,190 megawatts of electricity. [1]

Environmental and Human Costs

The expansion comes at a significant cost. Communities are reporting shrinking spring flows – down by 30 percent in some areas of the Doda basin – attributed to upstream dams like Pakal Dul, disrupting traditional irrigation practices. [1] Villages have been displaced, and residents claim promised development and compensation have failed to materialize. Naseema Bano, a resident near Dungduro, notes the deterioration of her health due to pollution from construction, and the inadequacy of local facilities like hospitals and schools. [1]

Experts caution that even “run-of-the-river” projects, often presented as low-impact, can cause substantial damage in mountainous regions, leading to forest loss, farmland inundation, and ecosystem disruption. [1] Parineeta Dandekar, a river researcher, highlights the impacts on protected areas, forests, groundwater springs, and downstream stability. [1]

A Shift in Water Governance and Geopolitical Implications

The hydropower expansion signifies a shift in how water is governed, with India increasingly framing water as an asset to be “fully utilized” while remaining formally compliant with the Indus Waters Treaty. [1] This approach allows India to maximize upstream control, potentially undermining Pakistan and blurring the line between infrastructure planning and strategic signaling.

The Chenab River originates in Himachal Pradesh and flows for over 300 miles through several districts before entering Pakistan. [1] The region’s seismically active nature adds to concerns about the safety of large infrastructure projects. [1]

In 2025, India briefly threatened to halt water flows to Pakistan following a militant attack in Kashmir, prompting a warning from Pakistan that any diversion would be considered an act of war. [1] This incident underscored the potential for water disputes to escalate into security crises.

Climate Change and Regional Instability

Climate change is exacerbating the risks, intensifying water scarcity and political mistrust. [1] Erin Sikorsky, director of the Center for Climate and Security, notes that melting glaciers and intensifying droughts increase suspicion between upstream and downstream communities. [1]

Experts emphasize the need for cooperation, information sharing, and respect for transboundary agreements. [1] However, the Indus Waters Treaty, once a symbol of cooperation, is increasingly viewed as a tool for strategic signaling, with India repeatedly invoking the possibility of revisiting or canceling the agreement since 2016. [1]

For communities like Shama Begum’s, the consequences are already being felt – in cracked walls, declining health, and the loss of a traditional way of life. As climate change accelerates and political trust erodes, the costs of treating rivers as strategic assets are increasingly borne by those with the least power to influence decisions.