Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2028 Elections at Risk as Eastern Conflict Intensifies

President Félix Tshisekedi warns that national elections cannot proceed without resolving the devastating conflict in the east, raising concerns about democratic stability and regional security.

— ### **The Crisis: Why Elections Hang in the Balance** The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) faces an existential challenge to its democratic process as President Félix Tshisekedi explicitly linked the feasibility of the 2028 elections to the resolution of the ongoing conflict in the eastern provinces. In a televised address, Tshisekedi stated that **”if we cannot end this war, unfortunately we will not be able to organize elections in 2028″**—a stark admission of the war’s destabilizing impact on national governance. The conflict, which escalated in **January 2025**, has been dominated by the **M23 rebel group**, backed by Rwanda, which seized control of strategic cities including **Goma** (January 2025) and **Bukavu** (February 2025). The violence has claimed **over 3,000 lives** and displaced **approximately 7 million people**, exacerbating what was already one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Tshisekedi emphasized that the elections cannot proceed **”without North Kivu and South Kivu”**—the two eastern provinces at the heart of the conflict—highlighting the logistical and security obstacles. **”The resources are there,”** he added, **”but we cannot organize elections without stability in these regions.”** — ### **The Roots of the Conflict: Decades of Unrest and Mineral Wealth** The current crisis is the latest chapter in the DRC’s **decades-long cycle of violence**, fueled by competition over control of the country’s vast mineral resources—particularly **coltan, gold, and cobalt**, critical for global electronics and renewable energy technologies. The M23 rebels, though the most prominent armed group today, are part of a broader ecosystem of **over 100 active militias** operating in the east, many linked to regional and international actors. The **U.S.-mediated peace agreements** and other diplomatic efforts have so far failed to halt the fighting. The **East African Community (EAC) Regional Force**, deployed in late 2025, has struggled to contain the rebels, while Rwanda’s alleged support for M23 continues to strain relations with Kinshasa and the international community. — ### **Tshisekedi’s Constitutional Gambit: A Third Term?** Tshisekedi, who is **serving his second term** (limited to two under the current constitution), hinted at the possibility of **extending his presidency** if the public supports it. **”I have not sought a third term,”** he stated, **”but if the people want me to have a third term, I will accept.”** Such a move would require a **constitutional referendum**, a path already criticized by opposition figures. Political opponents, including **André Claudel Lubaya** and **Seth Kikuni** (a two-time presidential candidate), condemned the remarks as an attempt to **consolidate power**. Kikuni warned on **X (formerly Twitter)** that if Tshisekedi **”threatens to seize power,”** the opposition would have **”only one option left: to cross the Rubicon.”** — ### **Regional and Global Implications** The DRC’s instability has **far-reaching consequences**: – **Humanitarian Crisis:** Over **7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs)** and **1.6 million refugees** in neighboring countries, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). – **Economic Disruption:** The conflict has **halted mining operations**, disrupting global supply chains for critical minerals. The **World Bank estimates** that the DRC’s GDP could contract by **3-5%** in 2026 without urgent intervention. – **Geopolitical Tensions:** Rwanda’s alleged backing of M23 has **strained relations with Uganda, Burundi, and the African Union**, while the U.S. And EU have imposed **sanctions on M23 leaders** and called for a **ceasefire**. — ### **Key Takeaways** 1. **Elections at Risk:** Tshisekedi’s warning underscores the **direct link between conflict resolution and democratic governance** in the DRC. 2. **M23’s Expansion:** The rebel group’s control of **Goma and Bukavu** marks a **strategic shift** in the war, threatening Kinshasa’s authority. 3. **Humanitarian Catastrophe:** The crisis has **displaced millions**, worsening one of Africa’s most severe displacement crises. 4. **Constitutional Uncertainty:** Tshisekedi’s hint at a **third term** raises concerns about **democratic backsliding** without a clear legal path. 5. **Global Stakes:** The conflict disrupts **mineral supply chains** and risks **regional destabilization**, drawing international attention. — ### **What’s Next? Possible Scenarios for 2026-2028** | **Scenario** | **Likelihood** | **Potential Outcomes** | |—————————-|—————-|—————————————————————————————| | **Ceasefire & Negotiations** | Medium | Peace talks resume; elections delayed but held in a later term. | | **Continued Conflict** | High | Elections postponed indefinitely; risk of **military rule or constitutional coup**. | | **International Intervention** | Low-Medium | **African Union or UN peacekeeping force** deployed, but success uncertain. | | **Tshisekedi’s Extension** | Medium | **Referendum on term limits**; opposition backlash and potential unrest. | — ### **FAQ: What You Need to Know About the DRC Crisis** #### **1. Who are the M23 rebels, and why do they fight?** The **M23** is a Tutsi-dominated rebel group that emerged in 2012, initially seeking to protect Congolese Tutsi communities from Hutu militias. However, their recent resurgence—backed by **Rwanda**—has expanded into a **territorial conquest**, aiming to control mineral-rich regions. Their stated goals now include **autonomy for North Kivu** and **ending foreign interference**, though analysts suspect **resource exploitation** remains a key driver. #### **2. How is the conflict affecting global supply chains?** The DRC supplies **70% of the world’s cobalt** and **significant portions of coltan and gold**, critical for **electric vehicles, smartphones, and renewable energy tech**. Mining disruptions have already led to **price spikes** for these metals, with the **London Metal Exchange reporting a 15% increase in cobalt futures** since January 2025. #### **3. Could the U.S. Or EU intervene militarily?** Unlikely. While the **U.S. And EU have imposed sanctions** on M23 leaders and called for a ceasefire, direct military intervention remains **politically and logistically challenging**. The **African Union and EAC** are leading diplomatic efforts, but their forces lack the capacity to counter M23’s advances without broader regional support. #### **4. What would happen if elections are delayed or canceled?** – **Political Instability:** Without elections, the DRC risks **prolonged uncertainty**, potential **coup attempts**, or **authoritarian consolidation**. – **Economic Collapse:** Investors may flee, worsening poverty, and inflation. – **Refugee Crisis:** Neighboring countries (Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi) could face **massive influxes of displaced persons**, straining resources. — ### **Conclusion: A Crossroads for the DRC** The Democratic Republic of the Congo stands at a **critical juncture**. The path forward hinges on **three key factors**: 1. **Military Resolution:** Can the M23 be defeated, or will the conflict drag on? 2. **Political Will:** Will Tshisekedi prioritize **national stability over personal power**? 3. **International Support:** Can the **AU, UN, and global powers** unite to pressure all parties toward peace? For now, the **clock is ticking toward 2028**, but the **eastern war** may well dictate whether Congo’s democracy survives—or succumbs to the same cycles of violence that have plagued the region for decades. —

Sources & Further Reading

• UN OCHA – DRC Humanitarian Crisis (2026)
• UNHCR – DRC Refugee & Displacement Data
• World Bank – DRC Economic Impact Assessment
• African Union – Peace & Security Initiatives
• East African Community – Regional Force Updates