President Trump claimed he has already struck “200 deals” on tariffs with foreign leaders — even as one of America’s biggest asset managers warned that a fall in trade between the US and China will lead to Covid-like shortages within weeks.

Apollo Global Management, which manages about $700 billion of assets, said analysis of China shipping data showed container traffic from there to the US is collapsing.

The consequence “will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods”, Torsten Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, said.

• Trump: I’ve made 200 tariff deals and spoken to President Xi

The White House claims that scores of trade deals are close to completion but has yet to release details of any. In an interview with Time magazine, Trump said that trade negotiations with foreign powers could be “finished” within “three to four weeks”.

“Ultimately, I’ve made all the deals,” Trump said in the interview to mark his first 100 days in office. “I’ve made 200 deals.”

Trump said that China’s President Xi had called him, despite China denying any contact between the two governments over the trade war between the economic superpowers. The president did not say when he and Xi spoke or what the two leaders discussed. “He’s called. And I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf,” Trump said.

Trump has placed punitive 145 per cent tariffs on imports from China, while Beijing has retaliated with 125 per cent levies on US goods. “There’s a number at which they will feel comfortable,” Trump said, referring to China. “But you can’t let them make a trillion dollars on us.”

Explaining his approach to the tariff policy that has triggered weeks of turmoil on global markets, the president compared the US to the world’s department store.

“I am this giant store. It’s a giant, beautiful store, and everybody wants to go shopping there,” he said. “And on behalf of the American people, I own the store, and I set prices, and I’ll say, ‘If you want to shop here, this is what you have to pay.’ ”

The White House suspended tariffs on other countries for 90 days this month as foreign leaders vowed to negotiate with the Trump administration, but it has not spared China.

Xi and Trump in Beijing during the US president’s trip to China in 2017

THOMAS PETER/GETTY IMAGES

Vowing to “fight to the end”, Beijing has restricted exports of rare earth minerals that are vital for manufacturing batteries and high-tech devices.

Apollo warned that a collapse in trade between the US and China would lead to “significant lay-offs in trucking, logistics and retail” next month.

The White House has softened its posture towards China in recent days, claiming that trade talks with Beijing were moving the right direction. China dismissed the claim as “fake news”.

Markets were subdued on Friday. US equities rallied earlier in the week, with the S&P 500 on Thursday posting its third straight gain of more than 1 per cent and the Nasdaq its own third straight gain of more than 2 per cent.

date: 2025-04-25 22:06:00

Covid-Like Shortages Looming? US Consumers Brace for Potential Disruptions

Table of Contents

Covid-Like Shortages Looming? US Consumers Brace for Potential Disruptions

The phrase “supply chain issues” might trigger flashbacks to empty shelves and anxious shopping trips during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the immediate crisis seemingly subsided, whispers of potentially looming Covid-like shortages are once again circulating, sparking concern among US consumers. This time, the contributing factors are different, but the potential impact could be just as significant. This means understanding what might be in short supply can allow for better planning, avoiding the mad dash for toilet paper 2.0.

What’s Driving the Concerns About Potential Shortages?

Unlike the initial COVID-19 disruptions that stemmed from unprecedented lockdowns,factory closures,and a surge in demand for specific items like hand sanitizer,the current concerns originate from several intertwined developments:

Geopolitical Instability: Ongoing conflicts such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,and heightened tensions in other regions disrupt trade routes and resource availability. This, in turn, increases shipping costs and the overall cost of consumer goods.
Extreme Weather Events: From droughts impacting agricultural production to hurricanes disrupting transportation infrastructure, extreme weather events globally are causing significant damage to supply chains.
Labor Disputes: Worker strikes in key industries, such as shipping and logistics, can create bottlenecks and delays in the movement of goods.
Inflation and Economic Slowdown: While not a direct cause of shortages, inflation can exacerbate existing problems.Higher prices may lead to decreased consumer spending in the future.
China’s covid Policies: Intermittent shutdowns due to the ongoing COVID policies in China, a major manufacturing hub, are still playing havoc with the global supply chain.

Specific Goods Potentially Affected by the Upcoming Shortages

While predicting the precise scope and duration of potential shortages is challenging, some particular categories of goods are considered especially vulnerable:

Agricultural Products: Grain, vegetables, fruits, and cooking oils could be affected by droughts, floods, and geopolitical tensions, leading to higher food prices and potential scarcity of certain items.
Electronics: Ongoing semiconductor shortages continues to disrupt the production of a wide range of electronic devices, from smartphones and laptops to cars and appliances.
Fuel and Energy: Geopolitical events, production cuts, and refinery capacity issues are contributing to fluctuations in fuel and energy prices, potentially leading to shortages in some areas.
Certain Medications: Supply chain dependencies for active components within different medications could lead to a potential shortage in the near future.
Packaging Materials: Higher demand and production constraints for paper products, plastics, and aluminum could impact the availability of packaged goods.

Understanding the Ripple Effect of Supply Chain Disruptions

It’s crucial to remember that supply chain disruptions aren’t isolated events. They create a ripple effect that can impact various sectors and ultimately affect consumers in multiple ways:

Higher prices: Shortages typically lead to increased prices due to higher demand and limited supply. Consumers may have to pay more for the same goods and services.
Reduced Choices: Shortages can also reduce the variety of products available on store shelves. consumers may have to settle for alternative brands or products that are not their first choice.
Longer Wait times: Shipping delays and production bottlenecks can lead to longer wait times for products, especially for online orders.
Increased Anxiety and Panic Buying: the fear of potential shortages can trigger panic buying, which further exacerbates the problem by creating artificial scarcity.

Expert Opinions and Predictions

Economists and supply chain experts are divided on the severity and duration of the potential shortages. some beleive that while disruptions are likely, they will be less severe than those experienced during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Others warn that the combination of multiple factors could create a perfect storm leading to more significant and prolonged shortages.

“We are likely to experience a period of price volatility and localized shortages for the next year to two years depending on how quickly inflation can be curved, and geopolitical tensions can be resolved,” states Dr. Anya Sharma, a supply chain analyst at Global Solutions Group. “However, a return to empty shelves nationwide is unlikely with the changes that have been made within the supply chain over the past couple of years.”

First Hand Experience

Sarah Miller, a mother of two from Ohio, recalls the challenges of the early pandemic days. “Trying to find diapers and formula was a nightmare,” she says.”I spent hours driving around to different stores, and often came home empty-handed. I’m definitely concerned about the possibility of shortages again. I’ve started stocking up on some essentials,but I’m trying not to panic.”

Practical Tips for Consumers to Prepare for Potential Shortages

While it’s impossible to predict the future with certainty, there are several steps that consumers can take to mitigate the potential impact of shortages:

Build a Moderate Emergency Supply: Stock up on essential items such as non-perishable food, water, medications, and hygiene products but avoid excessive hoarding, which can exacerbate the problem.
Diversify Your Shopping Sources: Don’t rely solely on one or two stores. Explore different retailers, online marketplaces, and local producers.
Be Flexible and Open to Alternatives: be willing to try different brands or products if your preferred choices are unavailable.
Plan Meals and Reduce Food Waste: Planning your meals carefully and using leftovers can definitely help you reduce food waste and stretch your existing supplies.
stay Informed: Stay informed about potential disruptions and shortages by following reputable news sources and supply chain updates.
Support Local Businesses: Local businesses are often more resilient to supply chain disruptions and can offer unique products and services.
Consider Bulk Buying (Wisely): For certain non-perishable items you regularly use, consider buying in bulk when prices are favorable, but be mindful of storage space and potential spoilage.

Why Diversifying Shopping Sources Matters: A Case Study

During the height of the pandemic, many consumers experienced frustration when their go-to supermarket chains ran out of essential items. A case study of community-supported agriculture (CSA) subscriptions and farmers’ markets highlights the benefits of diversifying shopping sources.

Families who regularly used CSA subscriptions to purchase fresh produce often found a more reliable supply of fruits and vegetables compared to those who relied solely on supermarkets. Farmers’ markets provided access to locally grown goods, bypassing some of the disruptions affecting national supply chains. These alternative sources offered greater resilience and reduced the impact of shortages on individual households.

Supply Chain Resiliency: A Lesson from the Pandemic

One key lesson learned from the COVID-19 pandemic is the importance of supply chain resiliency. Businesses are now actively working to diversify their suppliers, build up buffer stocks, and improve communication with their partners to mitigate future disruptions. However, it takes time for these changes to fully materialize, and consumers should be prepared for continued volatility in the short term.

The Role of government and Industry

Governments and industry leaders also have a crucial role to play in addressing potential shortages. Governments can work to de-escalate geopolitical tensions, invest in infrastructure improvements, and provide support to vulnerable populations. Businesses can focus on diversifying their supply chains, improving transparency, and building stronger relationships with their suppliers.

Navigating Potential Medication Shortages

The potential impact of medication shortages can be highly concerning. The American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) provides valuable information and resources for patients and healthcare professionals on managing medication shortages.

Communicate with your doctor: Discuss potential alternatives if your medication is at risk of being in short supply.
Don’t hoard medications: Hoarding only exacerbates shortages and can prevent others from accessing the medications they need.
Be aware of generic options: Generic medications can often be a suitable and more readily available alternative to brand-name drugs.

Table: Key Resource Points During a Shortage

Resource	Purpose	Link
Local Food Banks	Emergency Food Assistance	[Link to Local Food Bank Finder]
FEMA	Disaster Preparedness and Assistance	[Link to FEMA Website]
ASHP	Medication Shortage Information	[Link to ASHP Medication Shortage Page]
Consumer Reports	Product Reviews & Safety alerts	[Link to consumer Reports Safety Information]
American Red Cross	Emergency Resources	[Link to american Red Cross]

Beyond Panic Buying: A Sustainable Approach

The key to navigating potential shortages is to adopt a sustainable and mindful approach to consumption. Avoiding panic buying, supporting local businesses, reducing waste, and staying informed can help mitigate the impact of disruptions and create a more resilient and equitable food system for everyone.

Covid-like shortages for US consumers ‘within weeks’