Curt Cignetti and the New Era of College Football Coaching Evaluation

In soccer analytics, the “Messi Rule” dictates that any player rating system failing to place Lionel Messi at the top is likely flawed. A similar principle is emerging in college football: if an evaluation system doesn’t recognize Curt Cignetti’s 2025 performance with Indiana as the best, it needs recalibration. Indiana’s improbable rise, culminating in a 16-0 season, a College Football Playoff berth, and the school’s first national title, has prompted a re-evaluation of coaching performance metrics.

The Indiana Hoosiers’ Historic Run

Taking over a program historically plagued by losing seasons, Curt Cignetti immediately engineered a dramatic turnaround. Indiana went from averaging nine games won over the previous three seasons to an undefeated 16-0 record in 2025, defeating six teams ranked 11th or higher, including four by double digits. The Hoosiers finished first in SP+ (a college football rating system developed by Bill Connelly) and secured their first national championship. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza also won the Heisman Trophy and is projected to be the first overall NFL draft pick in 88 years.

A New Approach to Evaluating Coaches

Bill Connelly developed a method for statistically evaluating coaches by comparing their performance against their school’s historical baseline over the past 20 years. This approach, combined with raw SP+ ratings, provides a more nuanced assessment of coaching impact. The formula weighs a team’s performance against its 20-year baseline at 60% and the raw SP+ rating at 40%.

Top 20 Coach Ratings of 2025

1. Curt Cignetti (Indiana): 32.5
2. Joey McGuire (Texas Tech): 23.9
3. Clark Lea (Vanderbilt): 20.3
4. Eric Morris (North Texas): 20.3
5. Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss): 19.9
6. Ryan Day (Ohio State): 19.5
7. Dan Lanning (Oregon): 18.8
8. Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame): 18.5
9. Kyle Whittingham (Utah): 17.4
10. Mario Cristobal (Miami): 16.9
11. Rhett Lashlee (SMU): 16.1
12. Jedd Fisch (Washington): 15.2
13. Mike Elko (Texas A&M): 14.9
14. Kirby Smart (Georgia): 14.6
15. Kirk Ferentz (Iowa): 14.4
16. Bret Bielema (Illinois): 13.1
17. Alex Golesh (USF): 12.1
18. Tony Elliott (Virginia): 11.8
19. Kalani Sitake (BYU): 11.7
20. Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion): 11.6

The Best Coaching Performances of the Past 20 Seasons

Applying this rating system to the past 20 seasons reveals a list dominated by coaches who significantly elevated their programs beyond historical expectations. Cignetti’s 2025 performance tops the list, followed closely by Nick Saban’s 2012 Alabama team.

Top 20 Ratings Since 2006

1. 2025 Indiana (Curt Cignetti): 32.5
2. 2012 Alabama (Nick Saban): 32.4
3. 2013 Florida State (Jimbo Fisher): 30.8
4. 2019 Ohio State (Ryan Day): 30.7
5. 2010 Stanford (Jim Harbaugh): 29.2
6. 2006 Louisville (Bobby Petrino): 28.9
7. 2008 Florida (Urban Meyer): 28.4
8. 2011 LSU (Les Miles): 28.2
9. 2013 Baylor (Art Briles): 28.1
10. 2009 Alabama (Nick Saban): 27.9
11. 2007 Kansas (Mark Mangino): 27.6
12. 2011 Alabama (Nick Saban): 27.5
13. 2008 Texas (Mack Brown): 27.4
14. 2013 Alabama (Nick Saban): 27.4
15. 2022 Georgia (Kirby Smart): 26.8
16. 2014 Baylor (Art Briles): 26.8
17. 2007 LSU (Les Miles): 26.6
18. 2007 Missouri (Gary Pinkel): 26.6
19. 2022 Michigan (Jim Harbaugh): 26.4
20. 2021 Georgia (Kirby Smart): 26.3

The Best Coaches of the 2020s

Focusing solely on the 2020s reveals a slightly different ranking, highlighting coaches who have consistently performed well in the modern era of college football.

Best Head Coaches of the 2020s (Min. 3 seasons)

Looking Ahead: Coaching Changes and 2026 Projections

This evaluation method can also predict which teams are poised for improvement or regression based on recent coaching changes. Teams that have hired coaches after significantly underachieving against their historical baseline are likely to see a boost in performance. Conversely, teams with new coaches taking over programs that recently overachieved may face a regression to the mean.