El Niño Returns in 2026: Global Heat and Drought Risks Intensify

By Ibrahim Khalil, World Editor

The world is bracing for the return of El Niño, a powerful climate phenomenon that could reshape weather patterns, disrupt agriculture, and push global temperatures to record highs in 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a high-confidence forecast, warning that El Niño conditions are likely to develop as early as May–July, with potential for further intensification in the months that follow. The announcement has raised alarms among governments, farmers, and humanitarian organizations, who rely on accurate climate predictions to mitigate risks to food security, water supplies, and public health.

What Is El Niño and Why Does It Matter?

El Niño is one phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years. It is characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, which disrupts atmospheric circulation and alters weather patterns worldwide. The opposite phase, La Niña, brings cooler ocean temperatures and its own set of global impacts.

According to the WMO, El Niño events typically last nine to twelve months and can trigger extreme weather, including:

• Increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.
• Severe drought in Australia, Indonesia, southern Asia, and parts of Africa.
• Higher global temperatures, as the release of heat from the Pacific Ocean amplifies warming trends.
• More frequent extreme weather events, such as cyclones, floods, and heatwaves.

“El Niño is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the WMO. “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, indicating a high likelihood of El Niño onset in mid-2026.”

Global Impacts: From Crop Failures to Climate Records

Agriculture Under Threat

The return of El Niño poses significant risks to global food production, particularly in regions already vulnerable to climate shocks. In Asia, where rice, wheat, and palm oil are staple crops, the phenomenon is expected to bring drier conditions, reducing yields and increasing the likelihood of food shortages.

Australia, a major wheat exporter, is on high alert. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) warns that El Niño typically leads to below-average rainfall across much of eastern Australia, heightening drought and bushfire risks. While the strength of an El Niño event does not always correlate with its impact, even a weak event can have severe consequences. In 2023, a moderate El Niño combined with other climate drivers to produce Australia’s driest three-month period on record from August to October.

In Southeast Asia, concerns are mounting over palm oil and rubber production, which are highly sensitive to rainfall patterns. Indonesia and Malaysia, the world’s top palm oil producers, could face reduced output, further tightening global vegetable oil supplies. Meanwhile, India’s monsoon-dependent agriculture sector remains vulnerable to delayed or deficient rainfall, which could strain food security in a country of 1.4 billion people.

Heatwaves and the 1.5°C Threshold

Beyond agriculture, El Niño’s most immediate global impact may be on temperatures. The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts “a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” in the coming months. This warming effect could push global average temperatures temporarily above the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement, a critical marker for climate change impacts.

While a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the world has permanently breached the Paris target, it serves as a stark warning of the accelerating pace of climate change. “El Niño events are natural, but they are now playing out against a backdrop of human-induced warming,” said a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne. “The combination of El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions could lead to unprecedented heatwaves, particularly in regions already experiencing high temperatures.”

Humanitarian and Economic Risks

The humanitarian implications of El Niño are profound. The Horn of Africa, still recovering from a prolonged drought, could face a paradoxical risk: while some areas may receive much-needed rainfall, others could experience flooding and landslides. In southern Africa, El Niño is often associated with reduced rainfall, threatening water supplies and increasing the risk of food insecurity.

Economically, the costs of El Niño can be staggering. A study by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade estimated that the 2015–2016 El Niño, one of the strongest on record, caused over $5.7 billion in agricultural losses across the Asia-Pacific region. With global supply chains still recovering from the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, another climate shock could exacerbate inflation and food price volatility.

Uncertainty Remains: The Spring Predictability Barrier

Despite the high confidence in El Niño’s return, forecasters caution that significant uncertainty remains. The spring predictability barrier, a well-known challenge in climate science, makes it difficult to predict the strength and exact timing of El Niño events before late April or early May. This year is no exception.

“Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia of the WMO. “Forecast confidence generally improves after April, and we expect more robust guidance in our late May update.”

The term “super El Niño” has circulated in media reports, but the WMO does not apply this classification, as it is not part of standardized operational definitions. What matters most for countries like Australia, Indonesia, and India is not the label but the presence of El Niño itself—and the preparedness of governments and communities to respond.

Preparing for El Niño: What Governments and Communities Can Do

While El Niño is a natural phenomenon, its impacts can be mitigated through proactive planning. Here are key steps that governments, businesses, and individuals can take:

• Early Warning Systems: Strengthen weather monitoring and early warning systems to provide timely alerts for droughts, floods, and heatwaves.
• Water Management: Implement water conservation measures, such as rainwater harvesting and efficient irrigation techniques, to cope with reduced rainfall.
• Agricultural Adaptation: Promote drought-resistant crop varieties and adjust planting schedules to align with expected weather patterns.
• Public Health Preparedness: Plan for heatwave responses, including cooling centers and public awareness campaigns, to protect vulnerable populations.
• Supply Chain Resilience: Diversify food sources and stockpile essential goods to reduce the risk of shortages during disruptions.

Key Takeaways

• El Niño is expected to develop in mid-2026, with high confidence from the WMO, bringing warmer global temperatures and disrupted rainfall patterns.
• The phenomenon poses significant risks to agriculture, particularly in Asia and Australia, where drought conditions could reduce crop yields.
• Global temperatures may temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold, amplifying concerns about climate change impacts.
• Humanitarian risks include food insecurity, water shortages, and extreme weather events, particularly in vulnerable regions like the Horn of Africa and southern Asia.
• Uncertainty remains about the strength and exact timing of El Niño, with more robust forecasts expected in late May.
• Preparedness measures, such as early warning systems and water conservation, can help mitigate the impacts of El Niño.

FAQ

What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, while La Niña features cooler-than-average temperatures in the same region. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Australia and Southeast Asia, while La Niña often results in increased rainfall in these areas.

How does El Niño affect global temperatures?

El Niño releases heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, which can temporarily raise global temperatures. This effect, combined with human-induced climate change, increases the likelihood of record-breaking heatwaves and extreme weather events.

Will El Niño cause a global food crisis?

While El Niño can disrupt food production, particularly in vulnerable regions, a global food crisis is not inevitable. Preparedness measures, such as diversifying crop varieties and improving water management, can help mitigate risks. However, the combined effects of El Niño, climate change, and geopolitical conflicts (such as the war in Ukraine) could strain global food supplies.

How can individuals prepare for El Niño?

Individuals can take steps to prepare for El Niño by:

• Staying informed about local weather forecasts and early warnings.
• Conserving water and reducing waste to cope with potential shortages.
• Supporting community efforts to build resilience, such as tree planting to reduce heat island effects in urban areas.
• Preparing emergency kits with essential supplies, including food, water, and medical supplies.

The Road Ahead

As the world watches the Pacific Ocean for signs of El Niño’s arrival, the focus must shift to preparedness and resilience. While the phenomenon is natural, its impacts are amplified by climate change, making it a critical test for global adaptation efforts. Governments, businesses, and communities must act now to safeguard food security, protect vulnerable populations, and build a more climate-resilient future.

“El Niño is a reminder that our planet’s climate is interconnected,” said a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne. “What happens in the Pacific doesn’t stay in the Pacific—it reverberates around the world. The time to prepare is now.”