Europe’s Emerging Geopolitical Leverage: From Vulnerability to ‘Indispensability’

Europe is reassessing its geopolitical standing, shifting from a position of vulnerability to one of potential leverage by identifying and cultivating “chokepoints” – critical dependencies other nations have on European goods and services. This strategic recalibration comes after recognizing vulnerabilities related to energy dependence on Russia, concerns over Chinese technological influence, and, surprisingly, pressure from the United States.

The Realization of Dependence

For years, European nations championed economic interdependence. However, recent events have highlighted the risks of relying on other powers willing to weaponize their control over vital resources. Initial concerns centered around Huawei’s role in 5G networks a decade ago, followed by the weaponization of gas supplies by Russia in 2022. More recently, the United States, under the Trump administration, demonstrated a willingness to use economic pressure, such as punitive tariff threats, to influence European policy.

Identifying European Chokepoints

European policymakers and industry leaders are now focused on establishing their own “chokepoints” – areas where other nations are heavily reliant on European supplies. Research from the Institut Montaigne suggests fostering European “indispensability,” particularly in cutting-edge semiconductor technologies, could create leverage and deter potential coercion. Specifically, Europe’s dominance in extreme ultraviolet lithography through Dutch company ASML, is a key asset.

Further studies reveal significant European control over essential supplies for both China and the United States. A Geostrategic Europe Taskforce report identified 41 critical chokepoints where China depends on the EU for over 80% of its imports, and 67 such dependencies for the United States. These include vital inputs like insulin, pharmaceutical intermediates, medical technologies, and specialized machinery.

Germany’s Dezernat Zukunft think tank highlighted Europe’s control over 80% of US uranium imports and the dominance of Siemens in turbines needed for US data centers.

From Managing Partnerships to Projecting Power

Experts emphasize the need for Europe to shift its approach from simply “managing partnerships” to “projecting power.” This includes lowering the threshold for deploying the EU’s “anti-coercion instrument” to proactively address potential threats. Leveraging its position as a large consumer and financial market – where access can be restricted – is likewise seen as a crucial form of leverage.

The Path Forward

While identifying these chokepoints is a significant step, successfully securing European interests requires a willingness to utilize these levers, potentially aggressively. Collaboration between the EU and the UK on the use of these chokepoints, similar to their cooperation on sanctions against Russia, is also deemed essential. The current focus represents a starting point for a more assertive European geopolitical stance.