Gaza Death Toll Significantly Higher Than Reported, Lancet Study Finds
More than 75,000 people have been killed in the first 16 months of the war in Gaza, at least 25,000 more than previously announced by local authorities, according to a study published Wednesday in The Lancet medical journal. The research as well confirms the accuracy of reporting by the Gaza health ministry regarding the demographics of those killed.
Key Findings of the Lancet Study
The study, conducted by a team of experts including an economist, demographer, epidemiologist, and survey specialists, analyzed data up to January 5, 2025. It revealed that a total of 42,200 women, children, and elderly people died between October 7, 2023 – when Hamas launched a surprise attack into Israel – and January 5, 2025. This represents 56% of all violent deaths in Gaza during that period.
Researchers estimate that 3-4% of the Gaza Strip’s population has been violently killed as a result of the conflict, with a substantial number of additional non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the war.
Accuracy of Gaza Health Ministry Data Confirmed
The research team found that the Gaza health ministry’s reporting on the proportion of women, children, and elderly people among those killed was accurate. This finding comes after years of official questioning of the data provided by Gaza health authorities.
Israeli Security Officer Acknowledges Gaza Health Ministry Figures
In a recent shift, a senior Israeli security officer reportedly told Israeli journalists last month that figures compiled by health authorities in Gaza were broadly accurate. The Guardian reports that the officer estimated approximately 70,000 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli attacks since October 2023, excluding those missing.
Indirect Deaths and Overall Impact
The study also suggests that the official death toll represents a substantial undercount. Researchers, based on a survey of 2,000 families in Gaza, estimate approximately 8,200 deaths between October 2023 and January 2025 were attributable to indirect effects of the conflict, such as malnutrition or untreated disease.
Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London, and one of the study’s authors, noted the importance of using Palestinian pollsters to conduct the sensitive survey. “This is a extremely sensitive survey, and potentially very upsetting [for respondents], so it was important to have Palestinians both asking and answering the questions,” he said.
Comparison with Other Estimates
A research team from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated 78,318 deaths in Gaza between October 7, 2023, and December 31, 2024 – a figure nearly identical to the new Lancet study’s timeframe. But, the Max Planck Institute’s research suggested a higher number of indirect deaths, leading to a 44% reduction in life expectancy in Gaza in 2023 and a 47% reduction in 2024.
Challenges in Determining a Definitive Death Toll
Researchers acknowledge that reaching a definitive figure for those killed in the conflict will be a long and resource-intensive process. Spagat cautioned that a comprehensive accounting of all deaths in Gaza may never be achieved.
The Hamas raid of October 2023 resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths, mostly civilians, with 250 individuals taken hostage. Israel responded with a retaliatory offensive that has caused widespread devastation in Gaza.