Gulf States Navigate a New Era of Strategic Autonomy Amidst Iran Uncertainty

As tensions with Iran remain a persistent feature of the Middle East security landscape, Gulf states are reassessing their reliance on external powers and pursuing a path toward greater strategic autonomy. This shift is driven by a combination of factors, including doubts about the reliability of security guarantees, a desire to shape regional outcomes and a growing recognition of their own vulnerability to escalating conflicts. This analysis examines the evolving dynamics, the challenges, and the potential pathways for Gulf states as they navigate an uncertain future with Iran.

The Limits of Hedging and the Need for Proactive Engagement

For years, Gulf states have largely adopted a strategy of hedging – attempting to manage risk by balancing relationships with various regional and international actors. While this approach has helped to avoid immediate escalation, it has proven to be a reactive approach, focused on crisis management rather than proactively shaping events. As uncertainty surrounding Iran’s trajectory becomes more structural, relying solely on risk avoidance is increasingly seen as a constraint. Experts argue that a more proactive approach is needed, one that involves coordinated diplomatic, economic, and security engagement.

Doubts About External Security Providers

A key driver of the push for strategic autonomy is growing skepticism about the effectiveness of external security providers, particularly the United States. Gulf states have expressed concerns that Washington may not be able to effectively manage escalation, deter retaliation against Gulf partners, or adequately address the aftermath of a crisis unfolding within the region. Recent events, including the limited response to attacks on Saudi oil installations in 2019 and Abu Dhabi airport in 2022, have reinforced these doubts, leading to a rapprochement with both Iran and Turkey and a recalibration of security partnerships.

The Rise of Regional Security Concerns

Gulf states increasingly view themselves as frontline stakeholders in regional security, recognizing that events within Iran directly impact their own national security. This shift in perception has been underscored by incidents such as the Iranian strike on Qatar during the June 2025 Israel-Iran war, highlighting the potential for escalation to quickly expand and impact Gulf security. A significant U.S. Military buildup in the Persian Gulf, while intended to deter Iranian aggression, also underscores the potential for conflict and the need for Gulf states to prepare for various contingencies.

Gulf Leverage and Underutilized Tools

Despite perceptions of limited influence, Gulf states possess several tools that could be used to shape Iran’s behavior. These include economic leverage – through trade, transit access, and energy interdependence – and diplomatic capital, including mediation access and influence in Washington. For example, the United Arab Emirates is Iran’s second-largest trading partner after China, with $28.2 billion in trade in 2024, and Qatar shares the South Pars/North Dome gas field with Iran, providing over 70 percent of Iran’s gas. However, these tools remain largely underutilized due to a desire to avoid friction with the United States, limit risk exposure, and address intra-Gulf divergences.

Plausible Scenarios and Gulf Responses

To effectively navigate the uncertain future, Gulf states need to develop scenario planning that moves beyond the binary of regime survival or collapse. Three plausible scenarios include:

• Prolonged Internal Unrest and State Fragmentation: In this scenario, the Gulf states should prioritize engagement with the fragmented Iranian landscape, seeking to manage spillover risks and preserve channels of influence, even if it means risking sanctions from the United States.
• Elite-Led Transition: A multifaceted relationship-building exercise is crucial, diversifying contacts beyond official channels to mitigate the risk of misreading internal dynamics.
• Gradual Pragmatic Adaptation: Building on the Saudi-Iranian détente of 2023, the Gulf states should prioritize institutionalized cooperation and work towards a regional security architecture that addresses both Iranian and Gulf concerns.

Moving Forward: Towards a Gulf-Centric Regional Order

Achieving strategic autonomy requires more than simply distancing from external powers. It demands the capacity to shape outcomes and proactively influence the regional environment. This includes consolidating intra-Gulf approaches, investing in state capacity building, and developing a Gulf-centric regional order that accommodates the interests of other actors. While challenges remain, the Gulf states have a unique opportunity to move beyond crisis management and take control of their own security destiny.