Hamas Leadership Election Amidst Existential Challenges

Hamas has initiated leadership elections as the militant Palestinian movement faces critical decisions impacting its survival and the prospects for peace in Gaza. Members in Gaza have already voted, with participation expected from those in the West Bank, Israeli prisons, and the diaspora to elect delegates to the 50-member general Shura council. This council will ultimately select the politburo and a recent interim leader, a process anticipated to take several weeks.

Key Issues for the New Leader

The incoming leader will confront several pivotal issues, including the extent of cooperation with a US-sponsored peace plan, the potential for disarmament, and the terms of any withdrawal from the territory by Israel. They will as well need to determine Hamas’s role in a potential new Gaza government or whether to recede from the political forefront.

Leadership Losses and Current Frontrunners

Israel’s military campaign has resulted in the deaths of numerous Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, the Gaza leader, and Mohammed Deif, the military chief responsible for the October 2023 attack on southern Israel . Other high-ranking officials assassinated include Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut in January 2024 and Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024. An Israeli airstrike in Doha in September of last year, targeting key leaders discussing a US peace proposal, was narrowly avoided.

The two leading contenders in the election are Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Meshaal, both of whom survived the Doha airstrike. They represent distinct visions for Hamas’s future.

Contenders and Their Platforms

Khalil al-Hayya, currently residing in the Gulf, leads the Gaza wing and is considered Sinwar’s heir. He is described as hardline and closely aligned with Iran . Khaled Meshaal, a founding member of Hamas, leads the movement abroad from Doha and is viewed as more flexible, with stronger ties to Qatar and Turkey.

According to Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli military intelligence colonel, “Meshaal wants to consider a political settlement with Israel – not a recognition but maybe a long-term settlement – and even reconciliation with the Palestinian Authority, and once again be part of the formal political system in the Palestinian arena.”

Challenges and Uncertainties

The election takes place under conditions of extreme secrecy due to the threat of assassination faced by Hamas leaders. Khaled Elgindy, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, noted, “Whoever is in the leadership…the question is: who wants to be in that position, knowing that they will most likely be on an Israeli hitlist?”

Meshaal is expected to leverage his relationships with Arab states, particularly Qatar and Turkey, while potentially seeking to diminish Hamas’s reliance on Iran. The extent to which public anger and frustration with Hamas translates to the voting membership remains unclear.

Rebuilding and Future Prospects

Recent reports indicate Hamas is actively rebuilding its organization, collecting taxes on goods entering Gaza under the ceasefire agreement, and replacing officials in Gaza ministries and districts . While Hamas leaders have reportedly indicated a willingness to consider handing over heavier weapons to a Palestinian body, fighters are likely to resist surrendering personal firearms for self-defense.