The predawn seizure of venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026 was a complex affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.
Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a mix of extensive planning,intelligence and timing. R. Evan Ellis,a military strategist and former Latin america policy adviser to the U.S. State Department, walked The Conversation through what is publicly known about the planning and execution of the raid.
How long would this op have been in the works?
Operation Absolute Resolve was some months in the planning, as the Pentagon acknowledged in its briefing on Jan. 3. My presumption is that from the beginning of the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and the establishment of Joint Task Force Southern Spear in the fall,military planners were developing options for the president to capture or eliminate Maduro and other key Chavista leadership, should coercive efforts at persuading a change in the Venezuelan situation fail.
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Prior to Southern Spear, U.S. military activities in the region were directly overseen by Southern Command – the part of the Department of Defense responsible for Central America, South America and most of the Caribbean. But establishing a dedicated joint task force in October 2025 helped facilitate the coordination of a large operation, like the one conducted to seize Maduro.
Planning for the Jan. 3 operation likely became more detailed and realistic as the management settled on a concrete set of options. U.S. forces practiced the raid on a replica of the presidential compound. “They actually built a house which was identical to the one they went into with all the same, all that steel all over the place,” President Donald Trump told “Fox & friends Weekend.”
Why did the US choose to act now?
the buildup had been going on for months, and the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford in november was a key milestone. That gave the U.S. the capability to launch a high volume of attacks against land ta# Venezuela’s Political Crisis Deepens Following Failed Assassination Attempt and US Cyberattack
Venezuela’s already fragile political situation has spiraled further into uncertainty following a failed assassination attempt against president nicolás Maduro and a subsequent U.S. cyberattack targeting the country’s infrastructure.
On January 3, 2026, Maduro announced an attempt on his life during a military parade in Caracas. While details remain murky and accusations fly from both sides,the government alleges the use of drones carrying explosives. No casualties were reported, but the incident has prompted a crackdown on opposition figures and heightened tensions.
As an integral part of the operation, the U.S. carried out a series of cyber activities aimed at disrupting Venezuela’s power grid, communications networks, and financial systems. U.S.officials,speaking on condition of anonymity,claim the cyberattack was intended to pressure Maduro into negotiating a transition of power. However, the attack has largely backfired, causing widespread blackouts and exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis.
The Venezuelan government has condemned the U.S. actions as a blatant violation of international law and an act of aggression. Maduro has vowed to retaliate,raising concerns about potential escalation.
The opposition, fractured and weakened by years of repression, has been largely sidelined in the wake of the assassination attempt and cyberattack. Some opposition leaders have cautiously welcomed the U.S. pressure on Maduro, but others fear it could further destabilize the country and provide the government with a pretext for increased repression.
The international community is deeply divided over the situation in Venezuela. The U.S. and its allies have imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials and called for free and fair elections. However, Russia and China continue to support Maduro’s government, providing economic and political assistance.
The failed assassination attempt and U.S. cyberattack have plunged Venezuela into a deeper crisis, with no clear path toward resolution. The country faces a growing humanitarian catastrophe, a collapsing economy, and a deeply polarized political landscape.The risk of further violence and instability remains high.