The Quiet Rise of Middle Eastern Influence in Africa and Its Implications for U.S. Policy

For decades, the Western narrative on Africa has fixated on China’s growing footprint, but a quieter yet more profound transformation is reshaping the continent: the expanding influence of Middle Eastern middle powers. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are now pivotal actors in Africa, wielding both economic and military power that rivals traditional Western interests. This shift is not only redefining Africa’s geopolitical landscape but also forcing a reckoning with U.S. Foreign policy priorities.

Military and Economic Leverage Across the Continent

The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have established a sprawling network of military bases and defense partnerships across Africa, stretching from the Gulf of Aden to the Gulf of Guinea. The UAE alone has invested $47 billion in infrastructure, energy, mining, ports, and agriculture in Africa, making it the fourth-largest foreign direct investor on the continent after China, the European Union, and the United States (African Development Bank, 2023). These investments are not merely economic; they are strategic, securing access to critical resources and regional influence.

Qatar’s agricultural investments in East Africa, such as its 40,000-hectare land lease in Kenya, and Saudi Arabia’s 500,000-hectare purchase in Tanzania reflect a broader effort to insulate Gulf states from food insecurity. These moves are compounded by the UAE’s dominance in port concessions along the Red Sea and Horn of Africa, creating a logistical backbone for its regional ambitions (Brookings Institution, 2022).

U.S. Policy Dilemmas: Balancing Gulf Alliances and African Stability

The U.S. Has long prioritized its security partnerships with Gulf states, often at the expense of African stability. Since the 2003 Iraq War, U.S. Arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have surged, with total exports tripling under the George W. Bush administration (The Washington Post, 2023). This military collaboration has transformed Gulf states into independent power brokers, enabling their interventions in African conflicts.

The Sudanese civil war exemplifies this dynamic. The UAE’s support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through weapons shipments and logistical networks has exacerbated atrocities, including the 2025 El Fasher massacre (Reuters, 2025). Despite mounting evidence, the Biden administration has avoided pressuring the UAE, fearing fallout from its strategic partnership, including the 2024 designation of the UAE as a “major defense partner” (White House, 2024).

Patterns of Complicity: From Libya to Ethiopia

Similar patterns emerged in Libya and Ethiopia. The UAE’s deployment of Russian Wagner Group forces and its airstrikes from Egypt against Qatari-backed groups in Libya violated UN arms embargoes, yet the Obama and Trump administrations turned a blind eye to preserve Gulf cooperation (The New York Times, 2020). In Ethiopia, the UAE’s drone support for the federal government during the Tigray war was quietly tolerated, with the Trump administration framing it as a way to counter Chinese influence (VOA, 2021).

Reassessing U.S. Priorities: A Call for Strategic Realignment

The U.S. Must confront the reality that its Middle East-centric approach is undermining Africa’s stability. With Africa’s population set to double by 2050 and its economic integration accelerating, the continent is poised to become a global growth engine (United Nations, 2023). Yet, U.S. Policy remains tethered to Gulf alliances, even as conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Libya deepen.

Recommendations for change include conditioning arms sales on Gulf behavior in Africa and strengthening African institutions like the African Union to mediate regional disputes. As Congress debates restrictions on military aid to the UAE, the Biden administration faces a critical choice: continue enabling Gulf interventions or reposition Africa as a strategic priority (U.S. Congress, 2023).

Conclusion: A Continent at a Crossroads

The rise of Middle Eastern influence in Africa is not a new